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At present, the average operating rate of ABS manufacturers is about 40%. After the "May 1st," ABS raw materials such as styrene, butadiene, and acrylonitrile fell hard. In the absence of support on the demand side, the market sees the hollow state diverging. Comprehensive information, it is expected that ABS market outlook will continue to weaken the momentum of consolidation, it is difficult to change.
Due to the international crude oil price falling below US$100/barrel, downstream chemical products have been adjusted downwards, which is difficult to form a price support for the ABS market. At present, the price of Jihua 0215A products is between RMB 16,200~14,600 (t price, the same below), a drop of around RMB 1,000 from the same period of last year.
The styrene price of ABS raw materials remained stalemate for a long time. At the same time, due to the atmosphere of trading was light and the transactions were not smooth, the market saw a serious hollow state. High-end prices in markets such as East China fell, showing a slight decline. The Tianjin Daxie and Fushun Petrochemical styrene plants have been restarted. The increase in supply has added to the market pressure. In the short term, styrene still oscillates in a narrow range, with 11,000 yuan or a high point and it is difficult to break through.
The acrylonitrile market continued its downward trend after the May 1st holiday. The overall demand was flat and the supply side was relatively sufficient. The manufacturers had to cut down the operating rate. Although the traders did not hold much stock, the entire market was bad and the cash flow was serious, and the transactions were limited. It's hard to see a big one. Expected market outlook is also difficult to pick up, the price will continue downward trend weakness.
After the holiday, the butadiene market dragged the domestic market down after the holiday. The sales subsidiaries of Sinopec lowered the price by 2,000 yuan. The price of ethylene in Panjin was lowered by 1,500 yuan, and the price of northeast PetroChina was lowered by 1,500 yuan. Although prices have fallen by a large margin, the domestic downstream prefers imported cargoes, which will put pressure on the domestic market. It was heard that butadiene equipment such as Yamba, Zhenhai Refinery, Qixiang Tengda, etc. will be gradually put into production in the near future, and the supply will continue to increase, resulting in further increase in negative pressure.
Sufficient supply surface caused ABS devices to have to reduce the operating rate, which has become the common fate of domestic and foreign companies. Taiwan Chi Mei has lowered the operating rate of an ABS device to 70%; the plan to increase the annual production capacity of the device to 150,000 tons at the Zhenjiang plant in July has also been postponed due to the sluggish market. South Korea’s Kumho Petrochemical Company plans to close half of its ABS production capacity in Ulsan for at least one week; it also eliminates emission reduction plans in May.
In the domestic Zhenjiang Chi Mei company, due to the explosion on April 27, 700,000 tons of annual production capacity was shut down for roughly 20 days. At the same time, LG Kuangxing’s annual production capacity of 700,000 tons of ABS equipment began to repair from the beginning of May, roughly 20 days.
At present, the average operating rate of ABS manufacturers is about 40%, and the daily output is about 6,000 tons. Nevertheless, it did not inject good market supply, and the market did not show any improvement. This is evident in the downturn of the market.
The main downstream businesses of ABS, such as household appliances, automobiles, and toys, have not seen any improvement, and raw material procurement has remained low, which is the most important factor restricting the ABS market from improving.
The unfavorable factors of withdrawal of stimulus policies, sluggish domestic demand, and weak exports have brought heavy pressure to the home appliance industry. According to statistics, the sales of refrigerators in the first quarter of this year decreased by 12.40% year-on-year, and the sales of washing machines and air conditioners dropped by 20.20% and 32.10%, respectively. The color TV industry also saw no growth in the first quarter of this year, with LCD TV sales falling 15.84% year-on-year, and plasma TV sales 468,800, down 16.75% year-on-year. Haier, Hisense, Midea and other major manufacturers of home appliances to the countryside, sales have dropped more than 30%. It can be foreseen that the home appliance industry will be sluggish or become mainstream in 2012.
The news of the auto market is also bad. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, car sales in the first quarter of 2012 decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, and auto production also declined by 1.8 percentage points.
Toy industry is also difficult to see the dawn. The toy industry is a labor-intensive industry, but labor shortages, labor costs, and the rapid rise in operating costs are still major problems. Especially in the context of RMB appreciation, exports have been shrinking; while foreign product safety standards have increased, toy companies need to continuously increase facilities, equipment, and strengthen quality monitoring and management, further increasing operating costs and reducing corporate profits. Many companies have taken measures such as reducing production load and even parking.
The ABS market has a lot of negative factors. It is understood that the production line will be completed and put into production in the second half of the year. This is undoubtedly a bearish factor for the market that has been under weak consolidation and will limit the room for price rebound. Narrow turbulence or a full-year portrayal of ABS.
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