Controversy 10% growth rate: 2012 China's auto market to where

“The demand for China's passenger vehicle market will increase by more than 10% in 2012.” On January 8, Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Department of the National Information Center, stated at the 2012 China Automotive Market Research Summit Forum.

Xu Changming’s judgment mainly stems from the long-term growth law of the Chinese auto market. He believes that China’s auto market is always in a high-speed growth range from now until 2020.

However, the president of Xinhuaxin lei is not optimistic about the growth of 10% of passenger cars. "Overall, the overall growth rate of the automobile market will converge with the growth rate of GDP in the next five years, among which the growth rate of passenger vehicles will remain between 7% and 10%."

10% up and down?

In 2012, the demand for China's passenger vehicle market grew by more than 10%. Xu Changming's judgment has three basis. First of all, passenger cars will still be in a rapid development interval by 2020. The growth rate is equivalent to about 1.5 times the GDP growth rate, in terms of time distribution. It is high before and low.

Second, the positive and negative forces in 2012 worked together, resulting in a slightly lower economic growth in 2012 than the 8.5% expected in the long-term potential level. Therefore, from an economic point of view, the 2012 passenger vehicle market is close to the long-term potential growth rate, and the probability of being slightly lower than this level is even greater.

In addition, overall policies to encourage and limit total sales will not be introduced, and there may be partial negative policies. The main reason is that some cities manage traffic congestion. Of course, there may also be some powerful policies, such as the expansion of domestic demand in 2012. Automobiles are the major consumer goods at this stage.

Lin Lei’s concern comes from the capacity of urban vehicles in Sansi County. “I think the speed and scale of growth on the three or four lines is worth exploring. We think that the size of the three or four lines is not as large as it seems. The main reason is the road problem, but the road The problem is worse than I thought."

For example, at present, there are two cities in China that restrict purchases. The number of people in the Beijing Auto Group is about 250, and there is also Guiyang. However, the number of thousands of people in Beijing is only 140. “Even if there are three or four lines between Shandong Jiaozhou and thousands of people, there are only 90-100 people between the three and four lines. If there is no limit, the traffic is already congested.” LEI explained.

However, the consensus of lei and xchangming is that the trend of China's automobile consumption shifting to the 3rd and 4th cities is inevitable.

According to statistics from the National Information Center, by 2010, the share of third-tier cities will increase from 24.7% in 2007 to 29.1% in 2010, while the share of first-tier cities will drop from 35.7% to 30.7%. The share of the next-tier market will be Quantity changed to qualitative change.

According to a survey conducted by Xinhuaxin, the first and second-tier auto markets will enter the renewal phase, and the third and fourth-tier markets will become the fastest-growing new markets; the coastal market will enter the vehicle renewal phase, while the Midwest is still the first car purchase market.

“According to the current traffic conditions in the urban areas of the third-line region, road conditions in the county towns and rural areas, it is impossible to support the density of vehicles like Beijing, and the market is rapidly shifting to these areas.” Xu Changming called for the next step to make great efforts to change the cities in the third-tier cities. Road conditions in the roads, counties and rural areas, the future growth in demand for cars in the second and third line, especially the third line.

Xu Changming proposed to increase the construction of urban roads in these areas as soon as possible, and increase investment in the construction of sub-county and rural roads, just as it is to transform the rural power grid.

Dealer management exposure limit In the future development of the Chinese auto market, Xinhua believes that in the next five years, the first car purchase and the second car purchase market will coexist. The market share of secondary car purchases will increase sharply, and consumer demand will be significantly increased. With the characteristics of diversification, personalization, and regionalization, consumers in the “after 80′′ began to become the main consumers of auto consumption, and presented major challenges to the traditional marketing methods.

Obviously, the upgrading of consumption, the substantial increase in secondary purchases, and the rise of third- and fourth-tier cities will all pose even greater challenges to the channels. In China's channel transformation, the rise of a total revenue of 100 billion dealer groups will lead to distribution. Together with vehicle manufacturers, the Business Group is the driving force behind the development of the Chinese automotive market.

Prior to this, the Ministry of Commerce announced the “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the 12th Five-Year Plan for Automobile Circulation Industry.” According to the plan, the concentration of automobile circulation will further increase during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, and the turnover of the top 100 retail enterprises will account for the industry. The ratio of the total business volume is more than 30%, and at the same time, 30 regional automobile circulation enterprises with main business exceeding RMB 10 billion and 3-5 large-scale automobile distribution enterprises with RMB 100 billion are cultivated.

In 2012, the car dealership group will show greater creativity and initiative, especially in the layout of the third and fourth line market, will play a greater role. In addition, dealer groups will become even larger and distributors will become more commonplace.

The industry believes that the expansion of dealer groups means that the driving force for the development of the future automobile market will be changed from the original role of the OEM to the role of vehicle manufacturers and distributors. Some regional distributor groups may form a monopoly on the regional market. And enter the independent maintenance service market.

However, the management of large-scale dealers will also reach its limit margin, that is, its turnover, the number of outlets, etc. will reach the limit level. Judging from the current level of dealership management and management methods, the scale of dealers is facing challenges in management. “Some dealers have added new outlets that they can't control. This situation shows that one problem is that dealers' management margins gradually reach the limit.” lei expressed concern.