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For the passenger car industry, Guotai Junan stated that despite the large number of migrant workers returning home and the unfavorable employment situation, the demand for intercity passenger vehicles has shrunk. However, the demand of the bus and bus market in the city has maintained a relatively good development trend under the stimulus of the 2009 Shanghai World Expo, the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games and the 2012 Shenzhen Universiade. After considering the development prospects and various influencing factors of the passenger car industry and related companies, the “overweight†rating of the bus industry is maintained. Union Securities also believes that the passenger car industry is already at the bottom of the economy. Although its recovery time may be longer, it is still a better buying opportunity and it is recommended to increase the number of Yutong buses.
The heavy-duty truck industry peaked in the second quarter of 2008 and the rapid growth slowed down in the second half of 2008. Sales volume decreased 29.5% year-on-year, and remained low in the first quarter of this year. Guosen Securities expects that in the first half of 2008, the heavy-duty card sales volume will continue to show significant negative growth in the first half of the year. However, since the second quarter, the demand for updates will gradually recover. From the data observed by the company, it is driven by infrastructure demand. In February, orders from unloading vehicles rebounded sharply, accounting for 70-80% of all heavy truck orders. Whether or not the demand for logistics tractors rebounded significantly in the second half of 2009 was uncertain, but even if the conservative assumptions have not improved, the industry sales volume and prosperity in the second half of 2009 will also rebound significantly under the dual demand of renewal demand and dump truck demand. The high volatility of heavy truck industry sales will be reflected in the higher elasticity of corporate profits. For such a strong cyclical industry, the allocation at the bottom is the best choice.
Analysts recommend focusing on opportunities arising from mergers and acquisitions in the industry. The automobile industry readjustment and revitalization plan outline proposes merger and reorganization to form 2 to 3 large-scale automobile enterprise groups with production and sales scale of more than 2 million vehicles, and 4 to 5 automobile enterprise groups with production and sales scale of more than 1 million vehicles. The production and sales scale accounts for 90% of the market share. The number of the above automotive enterprise groups has been reduced from the current 14 to less than 10. Qilu Securities proposed to focus on the restructuring and integration of FAW, mainly involving the listed companies as FAW Cars, FAW Xiali and FAW Fuwei. GF Securities believes Dongfeng and Hafei, Chang'an and Changhe, Guangzhou Automobile and Changfeng, Beiqi and Fuqi or Changfeng, Jianghuai and Chery all have the possibility of integration. It is recommended to pay attention to Changfeng Automobile and Jinlong Automobile, which may be merged and reorganized.
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