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Although the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan for the Coal Industry" announced in January this year and the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Energy Development" announced in April, respectively, the "promotion of coal conversion demonstration projects and the promotion of coal liquefaction demonstration projects were proposed separately for China's coal chemical industry development. Construction, complete the demonstration of industrialization of coal liquefaction and coal to olefins during the 11th five-year period, laying a foundation for the industrialization development in the next decade and “accelerating the development of coal-based, biomass-based liquid fuel and coal chemical technologies, and making overall planning and orderly construction. The key demonstration project will lay the foundation for the development of the oil substitution industry in the 12th five years and longer.
However, the “Mid-term and long-term development plan for coal chemical industry†(hereinafter referred to as “planningâ€) that began to solicit opinions from the second half of last year has not been formally introduced. What are the reasons for making this document that has guiding significance for the development of China's coal chemical industry been delayed? The author believes that because the time is not yet ripe, the following is a simple analysis.
——The new coal chemical technology still needs large-scale device verification From the content of the ED, the “planning†requires 2010, 2015 and 2020, respectively, that the planned annual output of coal-to-liquid oil production is 1.5 million tons and 10 million tons respectively. The plan for coal olefins is 30 million tons; the annual output at the above-mentioned time point is 1.4 million tons, 5 million tons and 8 million tons, respectively, and the proportion of total olefins is 3%, 9% and 11% respectively.
At present, the domestic coal-to-oil and coal-to-olefins projects are still under construction and have not been put into commercial operation. Temporarily, large-scale promotion cannot be implemented. Even Shenhua Group's coal liquefaction and coal-to-olefin projects, which have received strong financial support from the state, will not be operational until 08 and 09. Taking Inner Mongolia Shenhua's million-million-ton coal direct liquefaction project with independent intellectual property as an example, the risks from the successful pilot test to the first realization of industrial production can be imagined. Therefore, whether it is direct liquefaction or indirect liquefaction, whether it is MTO or MTP, all companies need to carry out large-scale industrialization verification and promotion and planning before they can effectively avoid risks.
——The tendency of domestic coal chemical industry to overheat In the past two years, the domestic coal chemical project has a tendency to fluctuate. The provisions in the “planning†for the long-term coal chemical project target may exacerbate this overheating tendency, so it is currently not suitable for publication. .
Although in July 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Circular on Strengthening the Management of Coal Chemical Industry Projects to Promote the Healthy Development of the Industryâ€, and made specific requirements for the minimum scale of coal chemical projects. However, many companies have adopted a project with a total scale, but the first phase of the project has a smaller scale to avoid the constraints of the NDRC and continue to launch the coal chemical project. Some of the companies also occupies coal resources under the pretext of developing coal chemical industry.
At the same time, the development of a large number of coal chemical installations at the same time has also caused difficulties in the procurement of equipment and brought about a shortage of equipment construction and equipment installation.
In addition, the large amount of coal-to-methanol started to enter the market has brought about a sharp drop in the domestic methanol price. At present, the domestic methanol price has dropped from 4,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2007 to the current 2,300 yuan/ton, and at the same time, the country also has methanol. The net importer has become a net exporter.
To sum up, under the condition that the conditions are not yet mature, the NDRC chose not to publish the "long-term development plan for the coal chemical industry" for the time being, and it is wise to prioritize industrialization of coal liquefaction and coal to olefins. It is an appropriate time for the domestic industrialization demonstration plant to operate smoothly and accumulate large-scale application experience before conducting reasonable industrial planning.
However, the “Mid-term and long-term development plan for coal chemical industry†(hereinafter referred to as “planningâ€) that began to solicit opinions from the second half of last year has not been formally introduced. What are the reasons for making this document that has guiding significance for the development of China's coal chemical industry been delayed? The author believes that because the time is not yet ripe, the following is a simple analysis.
——The new coal chemical technology still needs large-scale device verification From the content of the ED, the “planning†requires 2010, 2015 and 2020, respectively, that the planned annual output of coal-to-liquid oil production is 1.5 million tons and 10 million tons respectively. The plan for coal olefins is 30 million tons; the annual output at the above-mentioned time point is 1.4 million tons, 5 million tons and 8 million tons, respectively, and the proportion of total olefins is 3%, 9% and 11% respectively.
At present, the domestic coal-to-oil and coal-to-olefins projects are still under construction and have not been put into commercial operation. Temporarily, large-scale promotion cannot be implemented. Even Shenhua Group's coal liquefaction and coal-to-olefin projects, which have received strong financial support from the state, will not be operational until 08 and 09. Taking Inner Mongolia Shenhua's million-million-ton coal direct liquefaction project with independent intellectual property as an example, the risks from the successful pilot test to the first realization of industrial production can be imagined. Therefore, whether it is direct liquefaction or indirect liquefaction, whether it is MTO or MTP, all companies need to carry out large-scale industrialization verification and promotion and planning before they can effectively avoid risks.
——The tendency of domestic coal chemical industry to overheat In the past two years, the domestic coal chemical project has a tendency to fluctuate. The provisions in the “planning†for the long-term coal chemical project target may exacerbate this overheating tendency, so it is currently not suitable for publication. .
Although in July 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Circular on Strengthening the Management of Coal Chemical Industry Projects to Promote the Healthy Development of the Industryâ€, and made specific requirements for the minimum scale of coal chemical projects. However, many companies have adopted a project with a total scale, but the first phase of the project has a smaller scale to avoid the constraints of the NDRC and continue to launch the coal chemical project. Some of the companies also occupies coal resources under the pretext of developing coal chemical industry.
At the same time, the development of a large number of coal chemical installations at the same time has also caused difficulties in the procurement of equipment and brought about a shortage of equipment construction and equipment installation.
In addition, the large amount of coal-to-methanol started to enter the market has brought about a sharp drop in the domestic methanol price. At present, the domestic methanol price has dropped from 4,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2007 to the current 2,300 yuan/ton, and at the same time, the country also has methanol. The net importer has become a net exporter.
To sum up, under the condition that the conditions are not yet mature, the NDRC chose not to publish the "long-term development plan for the coal chemical industry" for the time being, and it is wise to prioritize industrialization of coal liquefaction and coal to olefins. It is an appropriate time for the domestic industrialization demonstration plant to operate smoothly and accumulate large-scale application experience before conducting reasonable industrial planning.
Yibo Machinery Co., Ltd. , http://www.zjrollformingmachine.com