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In the past two years, the automotive industry has been subjected to wave after wave of shocks. First, the price of raw materials such as steel has risen, which has increased the pressure on production costs of automakers. Then, the high oil prices that have continued to climb since 2005 have affected most of them. Consumer's car purchase plan.
In the past, the “worse myth†of the Chinese auto industry has become history.
High oil prices touch consumer nerves
Needless to say, high oil prices have largely affected the desire of consumers to buy cars. “Initially, the most important consideration for consumers when purchasing a car is price, which is a one-time payment cost. However, it is completely different now. Because of the continuous rise in oil prices, many consumers obviously have to consider the operating cost, which is the cost after the purchase of a car. According to an interview with the China Economic Times, economist Niu Pian, economic forecaster of the National Information Center, said.
According to an online survey, nearly 50% of car owners said that they will reduce the frequency of car use. However, as Niu said, the advent of high oil prices is undoubtedly the most potential consumers of the car. High oil prices make them “think twice†about vehicle selection, purchase time, and future use. There is nearly half of the potential. Consumers said they would postpone their car purchase plans, 1/3 indicated that they would choose small-displacement cars, and 13% would abandon the car purchase plan.
Mr. Zhu, who lives in the far suburbs, told reporters: “My work unit is in the Third Ring Road and I live in the outskirts. I originally planned to buy a Fit car earlier this year, but I did not expect the oil price to remain high even if I bought a small-displacement car. Saving fuel costs an average of six or seven hundred yuan a month for oil, and it takes only two hundred yuan a month to get a bus. It was decided that we would not buy a car first."
Consumers are discouraged. The most anxious of course is the car manufacturers. In order to allow consumers to regain confidence in the purchase of cars, many manufacturers have organized "fuel-saving campaigns", and some even do not hesitate to cut prices to win the favor of consumers. Some industry analysts believe that the impact of rising oil prices on car consumption is huge. Most auto manufacturers can only adopt price cuts as the most direct means to stimulate consumption.
However, Niu Li believes that from the first 5 months of this year, the increase in car prices by more than 20% shows that oil prices are only one of the factors affecting consumers' purchase of cars. They work for some people, but they are not absolute factors.
Guoxin Junan Securities Research Institute Zhang Xin said in an interview with this reporter: “Price, as an important part of corporate marketing strategy, is to cut prices on the one hand to clear up the product inventory, and on the other hand, to make room for new products. In fact, it is an important means of marketing.†He believes that for companies, the best way to cope with high oil prices is to continuously develop new fuel-saving technologies.
Steel prices increase production costs
The automobile industry is one of the major industries for steel consumption. It is understood that in the entire automobile production process, steel plates account for 50% of cars, and all types of iron castings account for 20-30%, adding up to 70 percent of steel consumption. %.
In fact, the rise in the price of raw materials represented by steel is borne by parts and components companies. According to media reports, in the past two years, the wheel industry has suffered losses due to the increase in prices of raw materials such as steel products; auto parts and components industries such as axles, forging and foundry have suffered heavy losses; parts companies such as chassis, wheels, and bearing bushes also faced Loss.
Not long ago, Bridgestone, one of the world’s top three tire manufacturers, announced that it would increase its product prices in the Chinese market because it was responding to a substantial increase in the prices of raw materials such as natural rubber to ease cost pressures. At the same time, both Michelin and Goodyear also made it clear that they are studying how to deal with the price adjustment plan and will soon have measures in place.
Some industry analysts believe that since most of the parts and components companies use steel as the main production raw material, the proportion of steel consumption varies, and the impact of rising steel prices on costs also varies. For parts and components companies with relatively high technological content and certain market pricing capabilities, some of the cost-rising pressures can be transferred, while more parts and components companies will bear the burden of increasing steel prices, and they will not be able to transfer costs to downstream vehicle manufacturers. The operating environment will deteriorate.
For automobile companies, the impact of rising prices of raw materials such as steel is uneven. Zhang Xin told reporters that car companies are less affected by the rise in steel prices than trucks. The reason lies in the difference in the amount of steel used: the steel used in cars is about 1 ton, the cost is between 5,000 and 6,000 yuan, which is about 5% of the total vehicle cost; while for light trucks, the steel is between 2 and 2.5 tons. The cost is about 15,000 yuan, accounting for 30% of the total vehicle cost; the amount of steel for heavy trucks and buses is even greater.
He also said that different companies have different uses of steel. For example, the steel plates of Japanese cars are generally thinner than the steel plates of U.S. and German cars, which can also relatively reduce part of the production costs. But the premise is that we must not reduce costs by sacrificing quality.
Niu Li believes that since 2001, the continuous rise in steel prices, for automotive companies, the cost pressure is quite large, ending the profits of the auto industry, but the current situation, the various auto manufacturers still slowly digest this Part of the cost increase. And many manufacturers still sell cars at reduced prices, which means that they still have some profit margins. However, for many consecutive years, raw material prices have risen, and automobile companies may be overwhelmed by cost pressures.
“Although steel prices have fallen back from the previous big increase at the end of last year, steel prices have picked up again in February of this year. The current situation is a slight fluctuation. From a whole point of view, there should not be much change.†Told reporters.
How the auto industry faces pressure from steel and oil
In the face of stubbornly high oil prices, many consumers have told reporters that the biggest concern is whether oil prices will continue to rise.
In response, Niu said: “The key to rising domestic oil prices is still to look at the trend of international oil prices. If the international oil prices continue to innovate, the possibility of domestic rise still exists. If the international oil prices drop significantly, then the possibility of domestic rise is very high. It is small.†He believes that the existence of a monopoly in domestic oil will affect prices to a certain extent, but it is not a decisive factor. The key is that domestic oil prices are cheaper than those of the world. “If our own oil is sufficient, it can be very cheap. Even a few dozen times cheaper than the international are possible, for example, Venezuela, the world's major oil producer, only a few cents a litre, but our country does not have this ability, if our country's oil prices are too cheap, then there will be Losses can not be imported. Therefore, demand should be the second important factor in determining oil prices."
"For domestic oil prices, in the absence of significant fluctuations in international oil prices, our expectation is that domestic oil prices will be in line with international standards during the year. However, if international oil prices rise too far, we cannot keep up with it, because if domestic The adjustment of oil prices is too fast and there may be social problems.†Niu Li said that in response to high oil prices, many manufacturers are now engaged in research on fuel-efficient or alternative energy cars. However, these are just in the basic research stage, because the cost is very high and they are still far from the real industrialization. "It is certain that companies should consider future development issues such as production while they are trying to control production costs. Energy-saving cars or alternative energy cars are very clear batons."
For the future trend of steel prices, industry experts predict that steel prices will steadily decline in the second half of this year. This is undoubtedly good news for auto companies.
However, despite the significant increase in production capacity of domestic iron and steel enterprises, most of the steel mills are incapable of supplying high-grade cold-rolled steel for major steel used in China, and more than 60% rely on imports. The EU, Japan, and South Korea are the main importers. source.
According to industry experts' analysis, in the long run, serious shortages of high-end products are dependent on imports, and technologies and raw materials cannot be self-sufficient. High-priced imported raw materials and high-end imported products have contributed to the domestic steel price, which is also a long-term impact on the domestic steel market. The important reason.
Therefore, some experts suggest that automobile companies should vigorously improve the level of corporate management, strive to reduce material consumption, and strictly control product costs. At the same time, vigorously develop high value-added products to reduce the impact of changes in raw material costs on corporate profits. Enterprises should accelerate the development of new materials industries, and actively develop and promote the use of economical and practical lightweight alternative materials, reducing dependence on steel. At the same time, since the domestic use of automotive steel is also an important part of the localization of automobile production, it is particularly important for auto steels and domestic autos to compete with and cooperate with multinational giants.
Zhang Xin told reporters that if companies want to ease cost pressures, scale production is the most important, so that unit costs can be reduced. In addition, some materials can be comprehensively used, such as kits, increasing their complexity.