Inflection point approaching? Semi-annual report car prices across the board

Just in the past July, the automotive market in the capital market ushered in a strong rally, with an average increase of 20%. Some people even joked that if you buy a car stock, you can earn more than 15%.

The prosperous Chinese auto market is the supporting point behind it. In the middle of 2010, although the semi-annual report of the auto makers has not yet appeared, the performance of the rosy red has long caused the companies to hold back and issue an interim results forecast early.

As in the hot car market in the first half of the year, in the semi-annual performance forecast of car companies in 2010, “increasing production and increasing income” has almost become the law.

Among them, regarding the first-half net profit, FAW Xiali (000927) is expected to increase by 420% to 470% year-on-year, JAC (600418) is expected to increase by 300% year-on-year, and Xingma Automobile (600375) is expected to increase by 400% to 500% year-on-year. , Changan Automobile (000625) is expected to increase by 200%.

As for the trend of the second half of the year, although various parties have different opinions, the overall view is still stable. It is not a problem that the annual auto production and sales exceeded 16 million vehicles.

Like the auto market, there are many topics in the second half of the year, including the reorganization of assets of several large groups, queuing up for listing, and the expectation of preferential policies for energy saving and environmental protection. In particular, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology taking the lead in formulating the “Auto and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan” ( From 2011 to 2020), the news of the drafts for comments, the passion of the green energy market was quickly ignited, and a new investment in new energy sources for automobiles was emerging.

The first half of the year! The second half?

In the first half of this year, the Chinese auto market has grown at an alarming rate. The performance of each car company can be described by an exclamation mark.

Statistics show that in the first half of 2010, the Chinese auto market generally showed a “high and stable” trend, with cumulative production and sales of 8,472,200 units and 7,185,300 units respectively, a cumulative increase of 44.37% and 30.45% over the same period of last year.

Among them, the overall sales of the automotive industry in June reached 1,412,078 units, an increase of 23.64%, a decline of 1.83%. In July, the country’s total automobile sales reached 1.056 million units, a decrease of 6.70% compared with the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 17.18%. It was called by many insiders. "The off-season is not thin," because June and July are the traditional off-season. This year-on-year increase is already welcome.

As with such data, the performance of each car company has increased substantially. It can be said that it was a brilliant answer in the first half of 2010.

Among listed companies of car enterprises, in addition to the several car companies mentioned above, the interim performance forecast of other car companies is also “beautiful”. Among them, the GAC Changfeng (600991) pre-additions announcement shows that it is expected to be attributed to the company in the first half of 2010. The net profit of shareholders increased by more than 150% over the same period of last year (net profit was 53,904,946.64 yuan); Shanghai Automotive (600104) predicted that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the first half of 2010 will increase by more than 300% year-on-year, as of June 30. On the day, the company’s total vehicle sales have exceeded 1.77 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 44%; Dongfeng Motor (600006) also expects its net profit to increase by approximately 200%.

In the commercial vehicle segment, China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951) announced its performance forecast. It expects net profit for the first half of the year to be approximately RMB 550 million, which represents an increase of approximately 150%-160% year-on-year. Jinlong Automobile (600686) stated that it is expected that the sales volume of products will increase significantly year-on-year. The company's net profit realized in January-June 2010 will increase by more than 150% compared with the same period of last year. Foton Motors (600166) predicts that the growth rate of its interim report will be 120%. The Yutong bus with the least growth rate is expected to have a net profit. Increased by more than 50%.

In the auto parts industry, companies that performed for the first two years due to rising raw materials have also benefited from the growth of the auto market in the first half of this year, and “increased income” is evident. Among them, Fuyao Glass (600660) expects net profit growth of 289 More than %, universal money tide (000559), expected net profit growth of 50% -70%.

However, even though the report card in the first half was so beautiful, the trend of the auto market in the second half was still questioned.

According to data released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center recently, in the first half of 2010, there was also a significant increase in inventory with car sales. Statistics show that China’s auto inventory is increasing month by month, and the inventory cycle is prolonged on a monthly basis. In the first half of 2010, The inventory cycle is growing from 41 days in February to 55 days in June, with 1.287 million new inventories. The industry situation is not optimistic.

The analysis of Cao He, the national securities auto analyst, is affected by factors such as the marginal effect of purchase tax preferential policies, and the auto market will be adjusted back in the second half of this year. The growth will slow down and the year-on-year increase will be lower than the first half year. However, he also believes that “2010 At the end of the year, the purchase tax will be reduced, the car to the countryside, the trade-in, and other stimulus policies will be withdrawn. This may prompt consumers to purchase cars in the second half of the year and usher in a small peak of growth at the end of the year."