May China's imported car market shows rapid growth will not continue

From January to May of this year, the number of imported cars in China showed unprecedented high-speed growth, but the sales volume and prices of imported cars have declined since May. This situation has caused the attention of people in the industry. Ding Hongxiang, vice president of the China Automobile Dealers Association and general manager of China Imported Automobile Trading Co., Ltd. said in an interview that at present, the increase in imported cars is far higher than the increase in actual demand. Although the Chinese imported auto market will continue to grow steadily, the “blowout” market will not continue.

Statistics from the National Customs Automobile Import and Export Statistics show that from January to May 2008, China’s auto imports totaled 171,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59%, far exceeding the 37.9% increase of the previous year.

According to the analysis, the main reason for this situation is that due to the rapid growth of the imported automobile market in China in 2007, transnational auto companies have paid more attention to the imported car business in the Chinese market. At the same time, the North American auto market has severely shrunk. To ensure the realization of the overall sales target, multinational auto companies have increased their sales plans in the Chinese market on the basis of good growth expectations for the Chinese market in 2008. According to incomplete statistics, the sales targets set by the imported brands in 2008 are all increased by about 70% compared with the actual completion in 2007, and the individual brands have even increased by more than 150%.

On the other hand, the VIN code (vehicle identification code) verification management method was formally implemented on March 1. It also caused many parallel import car dealers to rush to declare customs before March 1, pushing up the number of imported cars.

As the rapid increase in the number of imported cars is much higher than the increase in market demand, the structure of supply and demand in China's imported car market has changed. In May of this year, the price and sales volume of imported automobiles declined, the inventory of dealers increased, and the consumption capacity of large-displacement luxury cars also weakened. According to the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center's monitoring of 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country, the price of imported cars has dropped slightly for five consecutive months this year, of which the chain fell by 1.95% in May.

In this regard, Ding Hongxiang believes that there are still many uncertainties in the macro economy this year. It is self-evident that the impact on China’s imported auto market will include macroeconomic adjustments, earthquake disasters, and the housing market of the stock market, all of which will affect the consumption of imported cars and fluctuations in the exchange rate of the RMB. It will also increase the difficulty of operating imported cars. However, he said that because China's economic growth is still relatively fast, coupled with the upgrading of the consumer structure and the increase in individualized demand, the Chinese imported car market will continue to maintain stable growth, and the increase will continue to be higher than the growth of domestic cars. However, with the development of China's imported automobile market in recent years, the competition in the imported automobile sector has become more complete and the relationship between supply and demand has also changed, and the previous “blowout” phenomenon will not continue.

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