PTA corporate profits are still guaranteed as prices fall

Since late February, the price of domestic PTA (pure terephthalic acid) has begun to fall back from highs and remains weakly adjusted. According to industry analysts, although PTA prices have fallen by 16%, the profitability of PTA producers is still good. In the second half of the year, due to the release of new production capacity, the domestic PTA self-sufficiency rate will increase significantly, and the domestic supply gap will be greatly eased.

High prices fall significantly

Since December 2010, the spot price of PTA rose from 9,170 yuan per ton to 11,780 yuan per ton in early February of this year, an increase of 28%. On February 15, the PTA1109 contract price hit a new high of 12,508 yuan/ton. While most people are optimistic about rising oil prices and PTA prices will hit new highs, PTA prices began to fall in late February, and the spot price on May 6 has dropped to RMB 10050/t.

A typical PTA industry chain is: crude oil - MX - PX - PTA - polyester chips - polyester staple fiber and polyester filament. From the perspective of the industry chain, the PTA price is affected by both the cost and the downstream polyester polyester demand.

From the perspective of cost, the decline in raw material PX has caused PTA to lose some of its price support. According to data from China Textile Network, the spot price of PX has dropped from the contract settlement price of 13,500 yuan/ton at the end of February to the pre-contractual price of 12,500 yuan/ton in May. Looking from a downstream perspective, in February, textile companies encountered labor shortage during the Spring Festival. The poor sales of polyester products and indigestible stocks also contributed to the decline of PTA prices.

According to Crystal Feng, a PTA researcher at Chuangchuang Information Technology, macroeconomic policy emphasizes price stability, especially foreign exchange controls introduced on April 1 this year, which have inhibited hot money inflows and hit speculators such as PTA and other commodities. Quartz Feng said that the current price of PTA is more reasonable, it is expected that the market outlook will be a weak shock pattern, the speculative factors of the previous price increase is too large.

Manufacturer's profit is still guaranteed

Although the price of PTA fell by 16%, the price of raw material PX was also falling, and the PTA supply gap throughout the year and the increase in demand for polyester production in the first half of the year unabated. Under various factors, PTA production is currently underway. Corporate profits are still guaranteed.

At present, the production pressure of the PTA industrial chain is concentrated in the middle and lower reaches. In terms of profitability, the upstream PTA is the highest, and the polyester industry in the midstream is affected by the lowering willingness of the downstream Polyester and textile companies to take goods. Inventories are under pressure and profit margins are second, while downstream Polyester and textile companies are facing monetary policy tightening, energy saving and emission reduction. With multiple pressures such as the appreciation of the renminbi, profits have become even slimmer.

The current PTA boom is also evident from the stability of the polyester companies. China Textile City's transaction data showed that in the last week of April, the sales volume of filament knitted fabrics soared from last week. The turnover was more than 10,200 meters per week, up from 5.8 million meters in the previous week and doubled from 4.1 million meters in the same period of last year. More than enough.

According to Quartz Feng, polyester companies generally sign PTA contract goods at the beginning of the month, accounting for 8 to 90%. By the end of the month, the settlement price of PTA production companies will also make up one to two percent of the spot price. Therefore, it will drive the downstream end of the month. Small sales peaks.

According to Wang Jie, a Treasury researcher at Treasure Island, even if the price of PTA is between 10,000 yuan and 10,500 yuan per ton, the production company still has a considerable gross profit of over 1,000 yuan per ton.

Far East Petrochemical deputy Ma Xiumei acknowledged this view. She said that PTA orders are all lengthy, and polyester companies are taking contracts. Although PTA prices have fallen, raw material prices have also fallen, and corporate profits are still good.

In addition, the reporter learned that PTA manufacturers such as Yisheng and Yuandong Petrochemical have already owned the production of polyester. The newly added PTA production capacity is the upstream expansion of the original industrial chain, which can more effectively reduce the unit energy consumption, cost and scale advantages. Will be reflected.

Domestic self-sufficiency rate will increase significantly

Global PTA's major capacity and consumption areas are in Asia. From 2008 to 2010, PTA consumption in the Asian region has grown rapidly. As PTA prices continue to rise, the profitability of manufacturing companies has also increased significantly. In 2010, the PTA industry's equipment load rate reached around 90%.

From the second half of the year to early next year, only about 5.7 million tons of PTA equipment will be added in mainland China, and the industry will usher in a new round of production capacity. In addition to Yisheng Petrochemical, which will release 2.5 million tons of expansion capacity in the middle of the year, 120 to 1.3 million tons of Sanfang Lane will be put into operation from August to September, and 2 million tons of Far East Petrochemical will be released later this year or early next year.

According to the introduction of quartz front, in 2010, the total output of domestic PTA was 12 million tons, the import volume was 6.25 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate was about 66%. At present, the monthly import volume of PTA is 500,000 tons, and it is estimated that the import volume will be about 6 million tons in 2011.

Shi Leilei, PTA researcher of Zhongyu Information, told the reporter that under the condition of zero new capacity in the first half of 2011, the current PTA production company's equipment load rate has risen to 98%, and domestic self-sufficiency rate has reached 77%.

According to the current capacity expansion of downstream polyester and PTA, it is expected that after the newly added 5.6 million tons of PTA capacity will reach capacity in the next year, the domestic supply gap will be greatly eased. According to industry estimates, the self-sufficiency ratio of PTA industry will reach 80% in the first half of next year based on 90% of the equipment load.