Take the adjustment heavy truck market to usher in steady growth

The demand for the market in the second half of the year is forecast to be between 118,000 and 135,000 vehicles. The market is expected to be a small climax in August and September.

In the first half of this year, China’s economy grew steadily and rapidly, with a total GDP of 9,144.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9 percent. In the first half of the year, total social investment in fixed assets was 4,237.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8 percent. The steady and rapid growth of the domestic economy and the relatively rapid growth in fixed asset investment in the entire society are conducive to the development of the heavy truck market.

In the first half of 2006, the total sales volume of the heavy-duty vehicle market nationwide totaled 153,334, a 4.51% increase over the same period of last year (146,719). Among them, 27,837 heavy-duty trucks were sold, an increase of -33.73% year-on-year; 83,415 units of second-chassis chassis were sold, an increase of 16.11% year-on-year; and 42,082 were semi-trailer tractors, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%.
The second half will be a steady and rational growth

In the second half of the year, the heavy truck market demand will not show a low tide in 2005, and will continue to maintain a “smooth, rational” growth trend. Specifically, in August and September, it is expected to form a small upsurge in the second half of the heavy truck market. In the second half of the year, the dominant models in the market are large horsepower and large-tonnage tractors; dump trucks and heavy-duty trucks will have little incremental growth, and the market will be concentrated in the market for semi-trailer tractors and second-class chassis modifications.

Considering the influence of relevant factors such as heavy truck market demand, based on factors such as total sales of heavy truck market and market growth rate from 1998 to 2005, through the regression curve analysis method, it is expected that the heavy vehicle market will grow steadily in the second half of 2006 and the market will be in the second half of the year. Demand forecasts total demand of 11.8 to 135,000 vehicles, and the total market demand will obviously “shrink” compared to January to June.
Out of the "market adjustment period"

In 2005, due to various factors such as the national macro-control policies, industry regulations, market supply and demand, upstream product prices, and the international political and economic environment, the total effective demand in the domestic heavy-duty vehicle market was significantly insufficient, and the demand was substantially reduced. Continuous decline, the nationwide heavy vehicle market has shown negative growth for the first time in eight consecutive years. In April 2005, the Chinese heavy-duty vehicle market entered the "adjustment period."

Driven by the investment demand, the domestic heavy truck market is “breaking ice”. According to heavy truck industry data in the first half of 2006, the national market sales growth in the first half of the year was 4.51%, indicating that the domestic heavy truck market ended the “market adjustment period” of up to 15 months. The heavy truck market has entered a "rational, steady" growth period.

Affected by the national automobile industry policy, the implementation of governance overload continues to increase, the implementation of a large-scale toll collection, and the soaring oil prices, which make large-tonnage, high-power, high-efficiency heavy trucks become the trend of logistics and transportation. In 2006, the overall situation of domestic heavy-duty vehicle market competition can be described as a “resurrection”. From January to June, the competitive landscape of the heavy-duty vehicle market appeared “vibration”, and FAW Group once again jumped onto the “top spot” in the heavy-duty vehicle market. “Dimethyl”, China National Heavy Duty Truck ranks third, Shanxi Heavy Duty Truck ranks fourth, Futian Auman ranks fifth.

In the first half of 2006, the concentration of the heavy-duty vehicle market was still very high. From January to June, the production and sales data of 23 heavy-duty vehicles showed that the intensive degree of the heavy-duty vehicle market further increased, and the total sales of the top six companies in the heavy-duty truck market reached 139,206. The degree of concentration has reached 90.79%. Among them, the total sales of Class II chassis of the Top Six companies totaled 80,220, with a market concentration of 96.17%; the total number of the top seven semi-trailer tractors was 40,194, and the market concentration reached 95.51%; The outcome will be a further increase in the concentration of semi-trailer tractors and Class II chassis vehicles in the second half of the year.
The tractors and trucks are different

Constrained by the impact of policy factors, the semi-trailer tractor market in 2005 suffered a severe winter, which is the fastest-declining model in the heavy-duty vehicle market. The growth rate is already -42.76%. In the first half of this year, the total sales volume of the tractors was 42,082, a 30.61% increase over the same period of the previous year (32220), completely out of the "nightmare period" of the 2005 tractor market.

In the tractor market with 25 tons of tonnage trailers with a total mass of ≤ 40 tons, it is the main model of a tractor, with a sales volume of 32,479 units, accounting for 76.23% of the total 420.882 units of tractors' sales, an increase of 42.07% year-on-year. In the towing vehicle market with a total weight of 40 tons < quasi-trailer, the market growth rate is 30.68%. In the towing vehicle market where the total weight of quasi-trailers is ≤ 25 tons, the sales volume is very small and the growth rate is very low.

The limited-load policy, such as toll-by-weight pricing, and the substitution of China Card products have further shrank the heavy-duty truck market. The traditional advantages of trucks are no longer obvious. Except that 6×2 and 8×4 models can adapt to policy adjustments, ordinary Trucks can no longer meet market demand. From January to June, heavy-duty trucks suffered a serious downturn in the market, with cumulative sales of 27,837 units, which was 33.73% lower than the same period last year (42004 units).