There are differences between the NDRC and the China Automobile Industry Association

Many media reported recently that the State Department has restricted the auto industry from restricting investment documents. In this regard, officials of the Department of Proscenium of the National Development and Reform Commission said only: “At least, it does not include the automotive industry.” However, the head of the China National Automobile Association stated: “The document is macroscopic and there is no specific provision for automobiles. The development of the automobile for the national economy. Pulling is very powerful, but there is also overheating, at least for those of us who engage in industry."

The comprehensive analysis of these words shows that there are differences between the NDRC and the China Automobile Industry Association on the issue of restrictions on the automotive industry. There are two sayings, “not included” and “not specifically mentioned,” which means that it is not appropriate to direct the blame on the car. .

The phrase “emphasizing the pulling effect of the car” actually shows that the insistence that “the car cannot be limited” is still very strong. But on the other hand, the person in charge of the China National Automobile Association said: “There is overheating in the industry and we have feelings.” This may be the same in the industry that calls for restrictions on the auto industry.

Is the limit limited or not?

Originally, this contradiction and confrontation had a result before the end of last year: At that time, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the State Council limited investment documents mainly to limit investment overheating, and the main tone of the automobile industry policy was to liberalize. However, no two documents have been issued yet.

At the end of last year, the automobile industry policy appeared to be nearing the end. China National Automobile Association said: “Only the State Council office meeting passed.” Now, the answer we get from China National Automobile Association is still: “It is coming soon, waiting for the Prime Minister's office meeting.” The National Development and Reform Commission’s Industrial Division once again stressed the tone of expanding openness when the “China Automotive News” introduced the general idea of ​​a new industrial policy. According to experts from the National Development and Reform Commission, it is very difficult to decide whether or not to limit or limit the number of vehicles. If the restrictions imposed by the auto association experts mean that they violate the NDRC’s policy of increasing the degree of opening up, if it is not limited, it does affect the overall economic development. This contradiction delayed the time when the two documents were issued.

From the analysis, it seems that the decision-making department may want to take out the car from the limited investment file, and only specify this in the automobile industry policy.

At this time, the China Banking Regulatory Commission announced that it will introduce measures to restrict new loans for the automotive industry. This measure is entirely based on the purpose of reducing the risk of non-performing loans. Regarding the problems caused by the automotive industry in the financial sector, the Development and Reform Commission also understands that the responsible person of the National Development and Reform Commission said: “The former heads of China National Automobile Corporation have stated that they have not taken state loans for a long time.” But several commercial banks are yelling Because in the black list of bad debts, the amount of loans for the automotive and building materials industries is very impressive. The investigation team went on to see that companies are using their own funds for mortgage loans.

Contradictions can be argued, but things can't be solved. Now the CBRC has to work out the problems of car overheating in the financing field first, and associate the actions of the Environmental Protection Bureau and the State Taxation Bureau in blocking the automobile factories' product standards, stating that although the NDRC is slow to move, it is The car limit vote did not stop. Faced with the individual actions of various ministries and commissions, how should auto factories respond?

Expert analysis, from the introduction of the new industrial policy to the introduction of the implementation rules at least six months, this time the automobile factory can "battles will block, water and soil" one by one to deal with the restrictions of the ministries and commissions policy: the EU III standard upgrade can only spend money bleeding Ways to solve; The CBRC raises the threshold for indirect financing, but private companies, such as Great Wall Motors, can go directly to H-shares for direct financing. Geely also has this idea, and even big auto groups such as Changan are considering new financing channels. Yin Jiaxu, president of Chang'an Automobile Co., Ltd., said: “The things listed in Hong Kong are the same as those listed in the United States. The mechanism of the Stock Exchange is more flexible than that of domestic A and B shares. Why can't we find some assets to try out the H shares?”

In the foreseeable future, fuel tax and recall policies may limit the new investment in the auto industry. The fuel tax has a deep impact on consumption, but the Ministry of Communications believes that this may affect road pricing and therefore strongly opposes it. Therefore, it is still difficult to implement for the time being. The recall policy is controversial in concept and the Bureau of Quality Supervision has not stated its position clearly yet, but if it recalls When the policy is implemented, the crisis fee spread in the bicycle may have to add a little more.

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