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Analysis of Operation Environment of Steel Industry in the First Half of 2012
1. Domestic demand support is weak From the perspective of domestic demand, investment growth may continue to slow in the first half of 2012. On the one hand, real estate regulation will continue to be maintained, will not be loosened in the short term, and the number of affordable housing starts will be significantly lower than that of the previous year, and the financing platform debt will enter the debt-concentration period. The weakening of local government financing capacity will restrict investment growth; on the other hand, In the short-term, China's manufacturing PMI index also showed a clear downward trend, and industrial production is expected to slow down. Therefore, the domestic demand for the steel industry in the first half of 2012 will be less than that in 2011, and industry production will moderately slow.
2. Foreign demand continues to remain weak From the perspective of external demand, the world economic growth prospects in the first half of 2012 are not good. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have recently lowered the growth forecasts of the world economy, major developed country economies, and emerging economies. First of all, although the US’s employment conditions have recently improved and consumer confidence has recovered, it is still difficult to re-enter a new round of growth cycle. The downturn in the real estate market has not changed significantly. Second, Europe is affected by the debt crisis. The manufacturing industry continues to shrink. The manufacturing PMI index of major countries continues to operate below the dividing line of the economy. The weak pattern in the short term is difficult to change. Finally, Brazil, India, and Russia are affected by the tightening policy, and the recent growth rate has slowed markedly. obvious. Therefore, the outlook for China's steel exports in the first half of next year remains bleak.
3, iron ore prices are conducive to ease the pressure on the industry operations From the near term, spot prices of iron ore fell sharply, China's tightening of real estate and high-speed rail control measures, iron ore market is short-term oversupply, is conducive to iron ore The further decline in prices.
In the medium term, international iron ore giants will adopt measures to reduce supply to cope with excessive price declines. Once the domestic and foreign economic growth momentum stabilizes, the possibility of soaring iron ore prices still exists. Therefore, the Secretary-General of the International Association for Modeling Luo Baihui believes that accelerating global resource allocation and promoting the merger and reorganization of the domestic steel industry will remain an important task for the long-term sustainable development of the steel industry.
2012 steel industry trend forecast
From historical experience, combined with changes in the overall external economic environment during the next year, it is expected that the growth rate of the steel industry may increase from lower to higher in the second half of 2012. The reasons are as follows: First, China's GDP growth rate may rebound in the third quarter of 2012. The last economic downturn started in the second half of 2007 and began to pick up in the first half of 2009. It took about one and a half years. Taking into account the powerful stimulus of 4 trillion investment, the actual adjustment period will take about two years. If this is the case, Based on this, this economic adjustment began in the second half of 2010 and should end in the first half of 2012, while the third quarter should show a clear upward trend. Second, the growth rate of the steel industry is basically consistent with the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of all industrial added value. From the historical data, the monthly growth rate of the steel industry generally lags behind the GDP growth rate of 1-2 months peaked or bottomed out, taking into account the growth rate of GDP according to the quarterly statistics, and the growth rate of the steel industry according to the monthly statistics, the two paces should be Basically the same. Third, the European Union recently reached a consensus on a permanent bailout fund, which will be launched in June 2012. It coincides with the recovery time of China’s overall economy and steel industry at the time. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of the steel industry may increase from lower to higher in the second half of 2012.
Wang Xiaoqi, deputy head of the China Iron and Steel Association, said at the Metals Herald meeting that China is striving to increase its capacity for self-sufficiency in iron ore; at the same time, it will accelerate the integration of the steel industry. It also said that the government plans that by 2015, the output of the top 10 steel producers in the country will account for the total output of the industry, from the current ratio of 50% to 60%. Imported iron ore currently accounts for about 60% of China's iron ore consumption.
1. Domestic demand support is weak From the perspective of domestic demand, investment growth may continue to slow in the first half of 2012. On the one hand, real estate regulation will continue to be maintained, will not be loosened in the short term, and the number of affordable housing starts will be significantly lower than that of the previous year, and the financing platform debt will enter the debt-concentration period. The weakening of local government financing capacity will restrict investment growth; on the other hand, In the short-term, China's manufacturing PMI index also showed a clear downward trend, and industrial production is expected to slow down. Therefore, the domestic demand for the steel industry in the first half of 2012 will be less than that in 2011, and industry production will moderately slow.
2. Foreign demand continues to remain weak From the perspective of external demand, the world economic growth prospects in the first half of 2012 are not good. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have recently lowered the growth forecasts of the world economy, major developed country economies, and emerging economies. First of all, although the US’s employment conditions have recently improved and consumer confidence has recovered, it is still difficult to re-enter a new round of growth cycle. The downturn in the real estate market has not changed significantly. Second, Europe is affected by the debt crisis. The manufacturing industry continues to shrink. The manufacturing PMI index of major countries continues to operate below the dividing line of the economy. The weak pattern in the short term is difficult to change. Finally, Brazil, India, and Russia are affected by the tightening policy, and the recent growth rate has slowed markedly. obvious. Therefore, the outlook for China's steel exports in the first half of next year remains bleak.
3, iron ore prices are conducive to ease the pressure on the industry operations From the near term, spot prices of iron ore fell sharply, China's tightening of real estate and high-speed rail control measures, iron ore market is short-term oversupply, is conducive to iron ore The further decline in prices.
In the medium term, international iron ore giants will adopt measures to reduce supply to cope with excessive price declines. Once the domestic and foreign economic growth momentum stabilizes, the possibility of soaring iron ore prices still exists. Therefore, the Secretary-General of the International Association for Modeling Luo Baihui believes that accelerating global resource allocation and promoting the merger and reorganization of the domestic steel industry will remain an important task for the long-term sustainable development of the steel industry.
2012 steel industry trend forecast
From historical experience, combined with changes in the overall external economic environment during the next year, it is expected that the growth rate of the steel industry may increase from lower to higher in the second half of 2012. The reasons are as follows: First, China's GDP growth rate may rebound in the third quarter of 2012. The last economic downturn started in the second half of 2007 and began to pick up in the first half of 2009. It took about one and a half years. Taking into account the powerful stimulus of 4 trillion investment, the actual adjustment period will take about two years. If this is the case, Based on this, this economic adjustment began in the second half of 2010 and should end in the first half of 2012, while the third quarter should show a clear upward trend. Second, the growth rate of the steel industry is basically consistent with the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of all industrial added value. From the historical data, the monthly growth rate of the steel industry generally lags behind the GDP growth rate of 1-2 months peaked or bottomed out, taking into account the growth rate of GDP according to the quarterly statistics, and the growth rate of the steel industry according to the monthly statistics, the two paces should be Basically the same. Third, the European Union recently reached a consensus on a permanent bailout fund, which will be launched in June 2012. It coincides with the recovery time of China’s overall economy and steel industry at the time. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of the steel industry may increase from lower to higher in the second half of 2012.
Wang Xiaoqi, deputy head of the China Iron and Steel Association, said at the Metals Herald meeting that China is striving to increase its capacity for self-sufficiency in iron ore; at the same time, it will accelerate the integration of the steel industry. It also said that the government plans that by 2015, the output of the top 10 steel producers in the country will account for the total output of the industry, from the current ratio of 50% to 60%. Imported iron ore currently accounts for about 60% of China's iron ore consumption.
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