2013, China's auto market eight conjecture

The overall situation in 2012 has been set. No matter what the results are, the year's efforts and efforts have reached a conclusion. For major car companies, 2013 is already in sight and they will have new opportunities to challenge. However, the performance of each car company, it is impossible to escape the trend of the overall auto market. From the perspective of all parties, the auto market growth in 2013 is expected to be between 5% and 10%. Whether the government has introduced a new automobile control policy will largely determine the auto market trend.

China Automobile Association expects to grow by 7%

According to Jian Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the rigid demand for automobiles is still strong. At present, our country is in the stage of rapid expansion of automobile consumption. The rigid demand for automobiles in first-tier cities still exists, and the vast second and third-tier cities and villages still exist. With a huge rigid demand. "Although our private car ownership has exceeded 100 million, the per capita car ownership of the Chinese is still lower than that of Europe, the United States, Japan and other developed countries and the world average," said Shi Jianhua.

However, Shi Jianhua also pointed out that “this year will affect the automotive market there will be several aspects of unfavorable factors: the environment, transportation, energy and other issues will restrict the development of the automotive industry. Confronted with the ensuing environmental pollution, traffic congestion and parking difficulties In other issues, some urban managers use simple, temporary, and restrictive measures instead of scientific, long-term, and diversionary approaches. Only simple management measures such as restriction of purchases, restrictions on licenses, and restrictions on restrictions will inhibit the demand for auto consumption. At the same time, the rise of international trade protectionism will also have a detrimental effect on car exports."

Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, predicts that combined with the results of research conducted by major domestic auto companies, it is estimated that sales will be 206.5 million units in 2013, including 19.35 million domestic sales and 1.3 million export sales, with a growth rate of approximately 7%. .

Car prices: joint venture cautious and self-aggressive

In terms of automotive companies, the overall joint venture is currently more cautious, while the independent brands are more optimistic. For example, Shanghai GM anticipates that its sales target for 2013 will be 1.45 million units, which is a year-on-year increase of 5%; Shanghai Volkswagen expects to target 1.42 million units, an increase of approximately 8%; FAW-Volkswagen is more, with an expected target of 1.5 million units, an increase from the same period of last year. About 12%. Shanghai GM, FAW-Volkswagen, and Shanghai Volkswagen occupy the top three rankings for domestic auto production and sales in 2012. They set relatively conservative targets. In addition to showing their views on the Chinese auto market in 2013, its huge base is one of the reasons considered. .

In contrast, the self-owned brand 2013 is generally more aggressive. For example, Changan Automobile plans to sell 800,000 vehicles, an increase of approximately 30%; Haima Motor sales volume will increase by at least 50% to approximately 230,000 vehicles; and Huatai Automobile sales will challenge 100,000 vehicles, an increase of approximately 100%. Dongfeng Fengshen sold more than 60,000 vehicles in 2012 and will challenge 100,000 vehicles this year. The plan will increase by 67%.

According to industry analysts, for self-owned brands, it is actually very difficult to accomplish their goals in the context of the overall entry of the automobile market into the era of micro-growth and the increasing efforts of the joint venture brand market.

Conjecture 1 2013, Chinese car or missed first

January 14, the Detroit car unveiled, weakened the US auto market for nearly four years, and released a strong recovery signal. In 2013, will the global auto market in turn take its turn to usher in the return of the American auto market?

Although China’s auto production and sales both exceeded 19 million vehicles in 2012 and surpassed the United States for the fourth consecutive year, ranking first in the world. However, in terms of sales growth, the United States is rising from a low point, while China is showing a decline from a peak to a stable level. the trend of. In 2012, car sales in the US auto market surged by 14%, while car sales in the Chinese market increased by only 4.3% year-on-year.

In 2013, China was missed the first throne. The recent large-scale domestic heavy haze shows that the environmental pollution problem has become increasingly prominent, and all the spearheads point to the exhaust emissions brought by automobiles. Following the limited licenses in cities such as Beijing, Guiyang, and Guangzhou, in 2013, we did not rule out more. With the follow-up of the city, the risk of the Chinese automobile market undergoing adjustment and control has increased. Needless to say, the rapid growth that has lasted for several years has left the base number too large and the growth potential is not enough.

For the Chinese automobile market, it is customary to pursue the status of the “big boss”, but it is not easy to maintain the first place with internal variables and strong external challenges. Frankly speaking, the number one or no is not important. The significance of "a big automobile country" in accelerating the transformation to a "car powerhouse."

Conjecture that 2 car companies will collaborate and collaborate, and the cooperation drama will be staged frequently.

At the North American Auto Show in early 2013, the news that Guangzhou Automobile Group and Chrysler deepened their cooperation conveyed the signals of the auto market in 2013: The scope of vertical integration between car companies will continue to expand, and alliances will become a trend.

In the past 10 years, the rapid growth of the Chinese auto market has obscured many problems. Many flat car companies have benefited from the strong demand of the market and not only survived, but also enjoyed a good life. However, as the Chinese auto market retreated to the normal low-speed growth, the tide receded and the “naked swimmers” would land one by one.

In particular, with the intensification of competition, the survival space of local brands is constantly being squeezed. The pressure from multinational car companies has caused local companies to move from competition to alliance. At this time, whether it is a strong alliance or a weak weak alliance, it will become a way of survival and development. Of course, in addition to the internal integration, the initiative to go out to marry with multinational car companies or passively become the object of multinational car companies to choose to form an alliance. In 2013, there will also be specific cases.

We predict that in 2013, in the automotive industry that pursues economies of scale, cooperation dramas will be held frequently.

Conjecture 3 Three-Package Policy Makes Dealers Heavy

On January 15, 2013, the highly-required automobile three-bag policy finally came into being. With the AQSIQ promulgating the “Rules on the Responsibility of Repairing, Replacing and Replacing Household Automotive Products”, from October 1 this year, domestic home car users will be able to enjoy a series of new Three Guarantees services.

It is worth noting that the new regulations point out that the three-package responsibility is borne by the seller. If the seller is responsible for the three-pack liability in accordance with the regulations and belongs to the producer or belongs to other business operators, the seller is entitled to the producer and other. Operators reimburse, but there are no more statements regarding the definition of producer and seller responsibilities.

In the vendor relationship, the distributors were originally in a weak position. They were solely responsible for the “three guarantees” responsibility. In actual cases, if the manufacturers took responsibilities to avoid the responsibility, the implementation of the “three guarantees” may be greatly reduced.

In fact, in the “micro-growth” era of the auto market, sales profits decreased and inventory pressures increased. As a result, auto dealers felt pressure. Once they could not straighten out the relationship between distributors and manufacturers in Three Guarantees, 2013 Dealers may walk more heavily.

Conjecture 4 car companies "localization" has always been a bit unfavorable

In recent years, regardless of whether it is BMW Brilliance, Shanghai GM, or Dongfeng Nissan, car companies that have achieved outstanding performance in the Chinese market will be based in the Chinese market, and will implement “localization” as a secret to success in many aspects such as product technology research and development and production. Moreover, "localization" has also been seen as more and more successful experience that can be replicated. However, with the changes in the external environment, whether the “localization” strategy of car companies can remain sharp in 2013 is also worthy of attention.

The data shows that the global sales of Peugeot brand declined by 19.6% year-on-year in 2012. In sharp contrast, Peugeot's sales in China increased by 24% year-on-year. As a result, Peugeot accelerated the process of localization in China. "Now China is able to introduce the Chinese market to products and technologies that are suitable for the needs of the Chinese automotive market." On the other hand, Peugeot focuses on the product strategy of small cars. Whether this is inconsistent with Dongfeng Peugeot's pursuit of a higher-level model in the Chinese market, which raises the brand's and premium's localization strategy, it is still unknown.

In fact, it is not just Peugeot that faces similar problems. In 2012, Infiniti announced domestic production and comprehensively promoted China's localization strategy. However, on January 14, Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn said in an interview with Reuters that Nissan’s investment in China will remain cautious in the future.

For the "winners" of the Chinese market, the road to localization in the future is also full of unknown. Recently, it was considered that the main frameworks for the localization strategy of BMW China's BMW localization were senior executives Deng Keke, Dai Lei and Lu Yi. In the future, whether BMW's localization strategy can continue to go deeper and more and more complicated and confusing.

Conjecture that the 5 Auto Group's own brand 2013 is even more strenuous

For several major automobile groups, one of the most important items in the “12th Five-Year Plan” of the automotive industry is “by 2015, sales of autonomous brands account for 50% of overall sales”. Looking back at the past year of 2012, this goal is actually too "rigorous." Take representative FAW as an example. Among them, the Pentium series of FAW Group not only did not show substantial growth and showed signs of shrinkage in 2012, but its new self-owned Oulang brand also had only three digits of monthly sales. The goal of selling 150,000 a year has become a cloud.

In fact, under the premise that the market environment and its own strength have not changed significantly, as Dong Yang, executive vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, predicts: the growth of production and sales of big groups is, in fact, a part of the growth of strong joint venture brands. Their Chinese brands are not as good as joint venture brands. In 2013, independent brands will be as difficult as 2012, and even more difficult than in 2012.

Conjecture 6 second tier follow-up, joint venture to take the fast lane

From past questioning, to mid-year disputes, to market recognition, joint venture autonomy precipitated and grew in 2012, and finally turned from a star to a prairie fire. GAC Toyota, FAW Toyota, Changan Ford, Changan Mazda, FAW-Volkswagen, and Shanghai Volkswagen have revealed plans for joint venture development. For a time, the autonomy of the joint venture once again became a hot spot in the auto market. The frequent movements and listing plans of many car companies indicate that following the concept and Kai Chen, the joint venture will form the second echelon in 2013.

2013 is critical for the autonomy of the joint venture. Next year is the turning point for the first-tier brand concept and the breakthrough of Kaichen, and also the first year of the birth of the second-tier brand. At the same time as the competition escalates, we believe this market will also become more mature. . Not only will it provide consumers with more extensive options for car purchases, it will also play a key role in fostering the competitiveness of the joint venture car companies.

Conjecture 7 second-tier luxury car: Prosperity still winter

In 2013, product introduction, channel expansion, and marketing success are still the highlights of high-end car companies. Fast-growing car companies such as Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz have all formulated more radical expansion plans. High-end cars have regarded the Chinese market as a top priority in recent years. Although this has strongly contributed to the high growth of the Chinese luxury car market, it has also caused an overall surplus of partial market segments.

According to the comprehensive evaluation of enterprises and analysis institutions, the total annual demand growth of the imported luxury car market in 2013 will exceed 10%. However, the seemingly still affluent market segment has a large number of companies and a disparity in power. In order to compete for shares and pounce opponents, frequent price wars have resulted in competition in this market is still fierce, and neither is selling high-end cars. The status of "make money" will also continue. This determines that the pressure on dealers will not be reduced in 2013. The profitability of luxury car brand dealers is generally not good, especially for imported high-end brands that have limited sales volume and no domestic models do not have price advantages, which are marginalized. The degree will also increase.

In the words of Dongyang, Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association, it is that if major autos continue to increase their exports to China this year, they will further increase the pressure on terminal sales and even trigger a price war again. Under the oppression of the collective price cut by luxury brands, Cars and economic vehicles will also have different levels of price cuts.

Conjecture 8 corporate personnel continue to turmoil

As the saying goes, the car is sold during the high season and the whole person is off-season. The trend of the auto market in 2012 reaffirms this principle. Starting from the beginning of the year, the high-level changes in the personnel of auto companies continued and no less than 50 executive positions were changed, making 2012 the largest year of personnel turmoil in recent years.

Even so, China is still a market with a large sales base and a steady growth. It is undoubtedly the “sweet spot” in the eyes of domestic and foreign manufacturers. In such a good market, why should multinational car companies not send the most senior executive teams to China?

In fact, personnel changes in multinational car companies in 2012 have already demonstrated this trend. This trend will continue to ferment this year. On September 1, 2012, German Volkswagen Director Heinzmann was formally appointed as President of Volkswagen China and C E O. This is the first time that Volkswagen’s board of directors has set up a dedicated function for the Chinese business. After Volkswagen, on December 12, 2012, Germany’s Daimler Group also “followed” to overweight the Chinese market, setting up its first position as a member of the board of directors for the Chinese business and appointing the current Mercedes-Benz truck executive Hubertus Troska to take the post. Although BMW Group did not send a member of the board of directors, sending its president of the most important market, the German market, to China also showed this trend.

With the increasing involvement of multinational car companies in China's business, especially the continued sluggishness in the European market, multinational car companies have become more dependent on the profits contributed by the Chinese market. It can be predicted that in the future, multinational car companies will send more and more senior executives to China. Their arrival will aggravate the turbulence of car companies and put pressure on local managers.

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