Analysis of Economic Operation Situation of Electric Power Industry in the First Quarter

In the first quarter, the country’s electricity operation was generally stable, and its power generation and electricity consumption continued to grow at a relatively fast pace, and electricity supply and demand were basically balanced. Affected by the continuous drought, hydropower in Southwest China and other provinces has been severely reduced, and the transmission from West to East has been greatly reduced, and Guangdong’s electricity supply has been tight.

I. Basic situation of power operation

From January to March, the country generated 948.9 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate fell by 3.3 percentage points. Of this, hydropower was 90.60 billion kwh, which was a year-on-year drop of 5%; thermal power was 817.9 billion kwh, which was a year-on-year increase of 24.3%; wind power was 8.17 billion kwh, an increase of 99.3% year-on-year.

From January to March, the total electricity consumption of the entire society was 969.5 billion kWh, which was a year-on-year increase of 24.2%. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate increased by 1.1 percentage points. The electricity consumption of the first, second, tertiary industries and residents was 19 billion kWh, 714.7 billion kWh, 100.8 billion kWh, and 117.8 billion kWh respectively, which represented year-on-year increases of 9.8%, 27.6%, 17.5%, and 15.0%, respectively.

By the end of March, the capacity of power generation equipment for 6000 kilowatts and above nationwide was 850.35 million kilowatts, a net increase of 16.78 million kilowatts from the end of 2009, and the country’s installed capacity was adequate. Among them, hydropower was 16.519 million kilowatts, a net increase of 890,000 kilowatts; thermal power was 655.7 million kilowatts, a net increase of 13.42 million kilowatts.

From January to March, the number of utilization hours of power generation equipment with 6000 kilowatts and above was 1,125 hours, an increase of 117 hours from the same period of last year. Among them, hydropower was 499 hours and 93 hours were reduced; thermal power was 1285 hours, an increase of 182 hours.

In January-February, the power industry realized a profit of 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 547.2%. Of this total, electricity production was 7.5 billion yuan, an increase of 36.2% year-on-year; electricity supply was 8.14 billion yuan, an increase of 363.5% year-on-year.

Second, the main features of power operation

(A) The power supply is generally stable and partially tight

In the first quarter, the country’s electricity supply was generally stable, but due to the rapid increase in demand, weather, and the supply of electricity and other factors, power supply in some regions and during certain periods became tense. In the middle and early January, the power supply situation in the regional power grids in East China, Central China, and the South was tight. After the State Council's meeting on coal and gas oil and gas transportation support work and the fifth coal and gas oil and gas transportation support work, an inter-ministerial coordination mechanism has been deployed. Related parties have seriously implemented the relevant requirements, and the electric coal rush has been further strengthened, and some regions are also timely. The orderly use of electricity was initiated, and tensions gradually eased towards the end of January. During the Spring Festival and the two sessions, the country’s electricity supply was stable.

After the Spring Festival, drought conditions in the southwestern region have increased, hydropower and industrial and mining enterprises have started to resume production, and the supply of China Southern Power Grid has been tight. In late February, Yunnan Province adjusted its hydropower output by less than 20% of its normal level, and Guizhou Province only had 48% of the same period last year. In March, the contradiction between electricity supply and demand was further aggravated, and the maximum peak power of the Southern Power Grid reached 6.55 million kilowatts. In order to help Yunnan and Guizhou provinces do their best to fight drought and relief work, the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for coal and gas oil and gas transportation guarantees urgently convenes relevant departments to study measures to ensure the supply of coal, electricity, and oil for drought resistance in Yunnan and Guizhou provinces to ensure the need for drought relief. .

(II) Electricity consumption in high-energy-consuming industries continues to grow rapidly

From January to March, the industrial electricity consumption was 704.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, of which 11.18 billion kWh was for light industry, an increase of 14.0% year-on-year, and heavy industry was 592.4 billion kWh, an increase of 30.5% year-on-year. Among the industrial electricity consumption, the electricity consumption of the four high-energy-consuming industries including chemicals, building materials, steel, and nonferrous metals accounted for 44.9%, up by 30.4%, 20.7%, 31.9%, and 51.7% year-on-year, respectively. The contribution rate of electricity growth reached 42.4%. The rapid growth of high energy-consuming products is still the main reason for the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the entire society.

(C) Further strengthening of the role of thermal power support

Affected by persistently low water supply from major river basins, thermal power generation continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate. From January to March this year, the growth rate of thermal power reached 24.3%, and the proportion of thermal power generation in the national power generation reached 86.2%, which was 2.8 percentage points higher than in 2009. The southern province of hydropower has suffered serious reductions. From January to March, the electricity generation in Hubei, Yunnan, and Guizhou increased by 12.1%, 3.4%, and 3.0% year-on-year respectively, far below the national average growth rate of power generation. Among them, Yunnan Province’s electricity generation in March decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, making it the only negative growth region in the country.

(IV) The growth rate of electricity consumption in the central and western regions is higher than that in the east

Driven by high energy-consuming industries, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the central and western provinces is higher than that in the eastern provinces. From January to March, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the eastern, central and western provinces was 21.5%, 25.0%, and 29.7%, respectively. In the 13 provinces where electricity growth exceeds the national average, 10 in the Midwest, of which Ningxia, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi, the electricity consumption growth rate is as high as 57.9%, 55.5%, 41.1%, and 36.7%. . The top five provinces in terms of electricity consumption are Jiangsu (23.3%) and Guangdong (19.3%). Shandong (21.0%), Hebei (23.2%) and Zhejiang (23.0%).

According to historical data, the electricity generation in the first quarter was generally at a relatively low level throughout the year. Taking into account the lower base figure in the same period of last year, compared with the first quarter of 2008, the growth rate of power generation in the first quarter of this year still reached 17.9%, and the momentum of power generation growth is still strong. It is expected that the growth of electricity demand will show a trend of “high before and after low”. Affected by such factors as strong demand, incoming water, climate, and coal supply, the contradiction of tight electricity supply in some regions will still exist.