Analyze the development status of domestic textile industry

As a high energy consumption market, the textile industry has become a key industry in the national energy conservation reform. According to the data, the total energy consumption of China's textile industry is approximately 4.84 tons of standard coal per ton of fiber, of which, the energy consumption of the apparel industry is 1.05 tons of standard coal/ton of clothing, and the energy consumption of the weaving industry is 0.95 tons of standard coal per ton of fiber. The energy consumption is 2.5-3.2 tons of standard coal per ton of fiber, with an average of 2.84 tons of standard coal per ton of fiber. In the coming period, whether in terms of domestic policies (financing, land, etc.) or export policies, the state's protection of the textile industry will gradually weaken, especially in the context of weakening the positive role of the textile industry in absorbing labor.

First, the competitiveness of textile exports has declined 1. The policy environment has been detrimental to the export of textiles. Currently, 16% of export tax rebates are exported, and 16% of export tax rebates mean that textile export companies can earn tax refunds even if they do not make money. At the same time, tax rebates are not fully subsidized to domestic textile manufacturers. Foreign companies have already considered this part of tax rebates when they quote. Therefore, when it is rumored that the export tax rebate will be reduced from 16% to 11%, many companies claim that they will have no profits at all, which reflects the low bargaining power and profitability of many domestic textile companies.

2. The pressure of appreciation of the renminbi The appreciation of the renminbi means that the increase in the price of foreign currency accounting for domestic export commodities means that the competitiveness of domestic textile exports in terms of price has declined. At present, the trend of appreciation of the renminbi will continue, which will increase the pressure on textile exports. The exchange rate of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar has reached 6.4, which is about 5.88% higher than the 6.8 figure in June 2010. According to the exchange rate theory, with the development of a country’s economy, its exchange rate level will inevitably face increasing pressure. According to the rapid development of the Chinese economy in the past decades and the level of the RMB exchange rate, it can be judged that the RMB exchange rate is relatively undervalued.

3. In terms of domestic and foreign production costs and production costs, enterprises have different proportions of raw materials, labor, energy, and others, but it is clear that the company's labor costs and energy costs are constantly rising. The wage level of workers has continued to rise in recent years, and companies have always faced difficulties in recruiting workers. Although some companies have limited orders, one reason why they still dare not stop working is to fear the loss of workers. At the same time, the energy costs of companies are also rising rapidly. The cost of growing cotton in China keeps rising. Take cotton in Xinjiang as an example. In 2010, the cotton planting cost of the Northern Xinjiang Corps was about 1,400 yuan/mu, and the local area was 1,200 yuan/mu. This year, the cotton planting cost of the Northern Xinjiang Corps reached At 1,700 yuan/mu, the local planting cost rose to 1,500 yuan/mu, and the planting cost in southern Xinjiang reached 2,000 yuan/mu or more, an increase of 400 to 500 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in cotton planting costs has made domestic cotton prices high, while cotton accounts for the largest weight of textile companies, ranging from 60% to 80%. At the same time, the unit cost of domestic cotton is the highest in the world at the cost of domestic and foreign planting cotton. It is determined that domestic textile companies are facing great cost pressures.

4. Overcapacity The production capacity of the domestic cotton textile industry has been in a state of excess, and the operating rate of the enterprises is insufficient. According to relevant data analysis, in 2010, the domestic textile industry has a production capacity of about 120 million spindles, and this year it is expected to have a capacity of about 150 million spindles. Among these capacities, the start-up of large companies is better, and the operating rate of SMEs is difficult to guarantee. Under the background of overcapacity, the new construction capacity will inevitably face enormous challenges in the sales market and profitability. The industry reshuffle will inevitably, and the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices will accelerate the process of shuffling, and the degree of industrial concentration in the later period will increase. SMEs with insufficient start-up rates will face the fate of being closed down or being acquired.

5. The substitution of chemical fiber substitute products to increase the high cotton price makes the substitution of chemical fiber products with relatively low price increase. Under the pressure of raw material costs, textile companies have increased their demand for polyester staple fibers and viscose staple fibers. In addition, as more and more new natural fiber substitutes have been successfully developed, the texture of many chemical fiber products is now close to that of cotton, and the choice of raw materials for textile companies has expanded. Therefore, the substitution effect of chemical fiber products on cotton in textiles will be enhanced, and it will have no small impact on cotton textile products.

6. Orders will continue to shift to Southeast Asia and other regions. The shift of orders to Southeast Asia in recent years is evident. Orders from Europe and the United States have shifted to lower-paying economies such as Cambodia and Vietnam. From January to April of this year, the total number of imported clothing in the United States increased by 6.6%, but the number of imports from China had a slight decline, while the number of garments exported to the United States by other major Southeast Asian garment exporting countries increased by more than 15%. The transfer of orders has prompted the transfer of the domestic textile industry. There are two trends in the transfer of the domestic textile industry. One is the transfer to the Midwest, and the second is the transfer to other Southeast Asian countries.

Second, the importance of the domestic market to increase 1, the domestic level of living increased, will continue to increase the demand for textiles From the domestic sales point of view, the domestic market demand for textiles began to increase, the number of textile products, varieties, grades and quality Increasingly demanding. In the face of pressure from exports, the domestic market has become a key market for late-stage enterprises, and the domestic market will be the first driving force for the development of the textile industry. The sustained and stable expansion of domestic demand has provided favorable market conditions for the development of the industry. China has a huge potential in the domestic market for textiles and apparel, and the huge total consumption of 1.3 billion people determines that the domestic demand market must rely on the domestic textile industry to satisfy.

2. Domestic high-grade textile exports are still competitive Domestic cotton textile industry chain is relatively complete, and other countries in Southeast Asia are at a disadvantage compared to domestic products in high-end products, so domestic high-grade textile exports have certain competitiveness. However, after the global financial crisis, the pace of economic recovery in the United States was slow and the debt crisis in Europe continued. This contrasted sharply with the sustained and rapid development of the domestic economy. The economic downturn has led to a decline in consumer demand. Textile orders in Europe and the United States are still relatively sluggish, with short-term orders and small orders mostly reflecting the reality of income impact on consumption.

Third, the industry's high and low end of the state of survival in the cotton prices soared in the market fell, the most affected is a large number of low-end SMEs, these companies weak resistance to risk, many companies stop or semi-stop work, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province About a third of the companies in the small-scale weaving companies have “credits”, and about 1/5 of the small companies have already begun to sell machines. Some companies with better conditions are “clenching their teeth”. Therefore, it is not easy to stop work, mainly because it is difficult to recruit workers in a short period of time after work stoppage. Sources of goods and sales channels will be affected.

The homogenization of enterprises at the low end of the industry chain is fiercely competitive, and the proportion of cotton raw material costs among the low-end companies is even greater. Therefore, under the circumstance that the cost price of domestic cotton relative to foreign countries becomes more and more obvious, the low-end enterprises compete. Weakness will be an inevitable trend. Enterprises positioned at the high end of the industry chain have a stronger ability to shift raw material costs and labor costs downstream. Under the circumstances that futures prices and spot prices of real estate cotton fluctuate, enterprises lock the cost of high-grade cotton in Xinjiang upstream, on the other hand, The pressure of rising costs brought by cotton blending and imported cotton was passed on to the sales link, thus ensuring the profitability of the company.