China's auto market enters the mid-term and long-term growth space

According to the research on the development law of the passenger car market in developed countries, it is found that the number of passenger cars in passenger cars in a country is in the shape of S-curve during the process of popularization of passenger cars in the country. The fastest growing period of the passenger car market is in the gestation period, followed by During the takeoff period, from the international point of view, different countries have different growth rates, but the overall trend basically conforms to this rule.

The level of economic growth and income disparity are the main factors affecting the length and speed of the popularity of passenger cars in the leading countries. Economic growth is fast, market demand is fast, and the popularity of passenger cars is also short; income gap is small, income distribution is even, and the popularity of passenger cars is short, and vice versa. The average growth rate of Japan and South Korea during the period of takeoff exceeds 20%. The main reason is that the income gap between these two countries is relatively small, and the macroeconomic growth rate is also relatively fast. The popularization period is rapidly completed, and the population of 1,000 people has reached 150 vehicles. Although economic growth in Brazil and Mexico is also relatively fast, due to the large income gap, the growth rate during the period of popularity is less than 10%, and after a decade of development, the number of people insured is also about 65 vehicles, far behind Japan and South Korea. .

In 2009, the number of passengers in China's passenger vehicles was 33.4, which was still far behind the international average of 1,000 people and 96 vehicles. Compared with the level of saturation of 500 people in international developed countries, the gap was even greater. Big, the space for the future development of China's auto market is still very broad.

From the point of view. At present, the development of passenger cars in China has crossed the incubation period and entered the take-off period. The average growth rate in China's gestation period is about 35%. According to the forecast of China’s macroeconomic environment by the Development Research Center of the State Council, China will be in an industrialized and urbanized stage by 2020. At this stage, China’s macroeconomy will still maintain a relatively fast growth rate. Therefore, China’s macroeconomic forecast for 2010-2020 is expected. Still can maintain the growth rate of more than 8%. The unfavorable factor is that China’s income gap is continuously expanding. The Gini coefficient announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2004 was 0.47. It is still expanding from 2005 to 2009 and is expected to be around 0.52 now. The Gini coefficient will be equivalent to Brazil and Mexico in the next 10 years. .

The level of income inequality in China is closer to countries like Brazil and Mexico, and the macroeconomic growth rate is closer to that of Japan and South Korea. The industry’s judgment on the Chinese passenger vehicle market is that the growth rate will be lower than that of Japan and South Korea and slightly higher than that of Mexico and Brazil. It is expected that the average potential growth level between 2010 and 2020 between 10% and 15% is reasonable, and it is still in a period of rapid growth.

Although the growth potential of passenger vehicles in China is still relatively large in the medium- and long-term, but over the past two years under the stimulation of favorable policies, the overdraft demand is large, so the short-term pressure is increasing, and the growth will be a moderate slowdown, do not rule out individual months in the second half There is negative growth, and growth stagnates in the next year. This is a normal development of the market. It is not a "turning point". It should be treated with a sense of calm.