Countries with severe overcapacity in automobiles may raise the threshold for automotive projects

The problem of overcapacity in the Chinese auto industry has caused the National Development and Reform Commission to be highly vigilant.

Ma Kai, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently that China’s auto industry’s production capacity has already exceeded 2 million vehicles. He expressed concern about this.

Some experts believe that at the end of the 10th Five-year Plan period, the National Development and Reform Commission highlighted the excess capacity of autos. It is undoubtedly warning investors that there are signs of overheating in auto industry investment. It is hoped that domestic and foreign investment will be prudent, and it may increase the access threshold for auto projects in the future.

Ma Kai pointed out at the national development and reform work conference that the auto industry is currently building 2.2 million vehicles and has a vehicle production capacity of 8 million vehicles and a surplus of 2 million vehicles. At the same time, he also pointed out that the production capacity of steel, coke, and electrolytic aluminum also has excess problems.

He said that starting next year, China will have to address the issue of overcapacity in some industries as a breakthrough in industrial restructuring, and strive to take substantive steps in promoting the control of total capacity and optimizing the structure of overcapacity industries next year.

Previously, Chen Bin, deputy director of the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, also revealed that the situation of overcapacity in China's auto industry will be more severe during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. If there is no restriction on investment, the auto production capacity can reach 20 million vehicles at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. Around, more than double the actual demand.

To this end, Chen Bin proposes to continue to improve the approval conditions for automobile production projects. He said that the current automobile production project has a very clear access condition, but it is doubtful whether these conditions can prevent repeated construction and excessive investment.

Zhang Boshun, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Market Trade Committee, believes that although Ma Kai did not directly say which industries will solve the issue of overcapacity, he recently mentioned that there is an excess of vehicle production capacity. It is undoubtedly a “friendly reminder” that investment in the automobile industry should be cautious in the future.

He disclosed that the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” that is being worked out has still not discussed the overheating problem of the auto industry. The economic industry conference next year did not discuss the autos as an overheated industry. However, this year, the Industry Department of the National Development and Reform Commission specially organized and investigated the auto industry in China. The production capacity shows that the NDRC has attached great importance to the overheated investment in the automotive industry.

He believes that this time, Ma Kai proposes that there will be a surplus of 2 million vehicles in the auto industry. This has a warning effect. This year, Gansu Automobile Project, which had not previously had a car project, has also introduced the Geely Automobile Project. The expansion projects of the joint ventures are also underway. Under the premise of overcapacity, private capital and foreign investment are still “shaking”, and this year the car sales will reach 560. Millions of vehicles have 2 million production capacity and there are still people investing in it. The NDRC thinks it should warn about the problem of surplus.

Senior auto analyst Zhong Shi also believes that the purpose of the National Development and Reform Commission is to raise the issue of excess vehicle capacity first, warning people that this issue is about to become serious and that a solution must be found.

Zhang Boshun believes that the country's most likely measure is to raise the threshold for automotive projects.

As for whether foreign investors will accept this reminder from the Development and Reform Commission, Zhang Boshun believes that the key to foreign companies' judgment of the Chinese market is whether foreign investors think that the Chinese auto market will grow steadily or re-emerge.

He believes that fiscal and monetary policies will grow steadily next year, and the auto industry will also grow steadily. The growth rate will be around 10%, and the sales volume will only reach 6.2 million to 6.3 million next year. Foreign investment is likely to see such steady growth. After investing carefully in the prospects. (Xiong Guozhi)

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