Fertilizer exports face two "stumbling blocks"

On June 1, the monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports entered the low-tariff period first, followed by the implementation of a low tariff of 7% below the benchmark price; on July 1, urea exports also entered the low-tariff period, which is also below the benchmark price. 7% of the implementation of low tariffs. Compared with the current high export tariff of 110%, the tax rate in the low-tariff period has been greatly reduced, which is very favorable for exports, and many people are looking forward to the export of chemical fertilizers. However, from the current situation, fertilizer exports are facing two "stumbling blocks."

One is whether the export base price includes tax. The current fertilizer export policy is to levy export tariffs of 110% during peak season; in the off-season, the tax rate is 7% when the export price is not higher than the benchmark price, and 1.07-base price/export price when the export price is higher than the benchmark price. ) × 100%, the export base prices of urea, monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 2,100 yuan (ton price, the same below), 2,900 yuan, and 3,400 yuan.

On March 23, the Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association together with several large domestic urea production enterprises reported to the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission. At the time, the news came that the Ministry of Finance explained the export price of urea in the off-season. He believed that the benchmark price to be implemented this year should be a price that does not include tax, and said that he would explain it to the customs in the future. According to calculations, the price difference between urea-containing and tax-free prices is about 144 yuan. If you think that the benchmark price does not include tax, the equivalent ex-factory price of urea is between 1900 and 2000 yuan, and you can also enjoy a low tariff of 7%. If you think that the base price is tax-inclusive, then the urea ex-factory price can only be 1,760 yuan. 1850 yuan, and now the production cost of urea is generally more than 1,800 yuan, which is obviously unfavorable to urea plants. Just when everyone thought that the benchmark price was not taxable, it was reported that the customs did not agree, and so far it has not seen the introduction of new documents that do not include tax base prices.

Whether or not the benchmark price includes tax has not yet been finalized. Relatively speaking, the impact on urea is greater than that of ammonium phosphate. Ammonium Phosphate exports have a better profit status at present. If the benchmark price includes tax, it will only reduce the profits of some companies. In accordance with the current international market prices, urea is positive on the verge of being exportable. If the taxes are included, it may seriously affect the export volume and the impact is relatively large.

The second issue is the appreciation of the renminbi. On April 29, the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 6.4990 yuan, the first time it broke the integer mark of 6.50 yuan, and reached a new high since the exchange reform. Since the second exchange rate reform in June last year, the renminbi has appreciated about 5% against the U.S. dollar. In the first quarter of this year, the appreciation rate of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar reached 1.3%, and the cumulative appreciation of the U.S. dollar in April was 0.88%, setting a new monthly high during the year and accelerating the appreciation of the renminbi. The trend.

The appreciation of the renminbi is detrimental to exports. For example, at the beginning of April, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar was around 6.55. If the appreciation of the renminbi to the US dollar is 6.45 and the urea FOB export price is 350 US dollars, then the exchange rate loss will reach 35 yuan, basically 1% per renminbi. Export profits will decrease by 1%. The rapid appreciation of the renminbi has a huge impact on exports.

However, the key issue for exports is still international prices. If the international prices are high, both of these problems can be ignored. According to calculations, if China’s urea export FOB price can reach more than US$370, exports will be quite smooth, and then the benchmark price issue and RMB appreciation will no longer be a big problem. At present, the international urea price has gradually come out of the trough and has risen continuously for the past three weeks. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea region has risen from the previous minimum of 310 US dollars to the current 350 to 360 US dollars, which is a good thing for urea exports; the international price of ammonium phosphate has been at a high level. Consolidate. In general, there are certain opportunities for China's fertilizer exports.