Iron and Steel Prices May Decline Trade Disruptions Resulting in Overweight Imports of Iron Ore

“In addition to the factors that increase production demand for iron ore by enterprises during the winter and next spring, the fundamental reason for the excessive import of iron ore this year is the chaotic order of import trade.” November 19, 2009 (seventh) China At the strategic development and investment summit of the steel industry chain, Luo Bingsheng, executive vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association, said so.
Driven by the sharp increase in the country’s investment in fixed assets, from January to October this year, domestic mines produced 702.6642 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 3,604,500 tons, equivalent to an increase in production of 12.8 million tons of pig iron, to increase the demand for pig iron production. There is still a gap of 75.4 million tons. In this context, China's steel companies have expanded their iron ore imports. Data from the customs show that from January to October, China imported a total of 51.48 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 13.835 million tons, an increase of 36.75%. , more than the actual demand of about 63 million tons.
Luo Bingsheng said that the current state of operation of the steel industry must not be blindly optimistic, due to the continuous increase in social inventory and corporate inventories, may lead to the decline in domestic steel prices, corporate profits decline, loss-making enterprises. Among the 70 large and medium-sized steel manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics, from January to September, the main business sales revenue was 1.5553.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.39%; the profit and taxation was 84.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.55%. The realized profit was 29.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 77.65%.
"If the annual crude steel production exceeds 565 million tons, the contradiction between supply exceeding demand will become even more pronounced, steel prices will further decline, and loss-making enterprises will continue to increase," he said.
From the current development trend of crude steel production, crude steel production in 2009 may be about 565 million tons.
Compared with last year, the output of crude steel increased by about 53 million tons, and the impact of import and export factors increased the amount of resources by about 46 million tons. The two combined total annual apparent consumption of crude steel means that the inspections should be cancelled. About 6.4 billion tons, an increase of 99 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 21.29%.
In addition, from January to September this year, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products decreased by 19.6% year-on-year. It is expected that the indirect exports of steel products driven by the use of steel products for mechanical and electrical products will be reduced by about 15 million tons from the previous year.
According to the above calculations, the amount of available resources in the domestic market in 2009 increased by about 114 million tons year-on-year, an increase of about 24.5%. This substantial increase in available resources is bound to aggravate the contradiction in the oversupply of the domestic market. .

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