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According to the latest report released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the national oil and chemical industry performed well in August. The main performance is a strong growth in production, and exports continue to grow. Economic operation has the following five characteristics: First, new progress has been made in oil and gas exploration, and energy production has grown steadily; second, steady growth in the production of agricultural chemical products, a marked decline in fertilizer exports, and an increase in inventories; third, the continued development of coal chemical industry; New materials continue to develop rapidly; Fifth, the traditional chemical industry is stable in production and demand is strong.
According to statistics, in August, the industry achieved total industrial output value (current price, the same below) of 604.18 billion yuan, an increase of 34.9% year-on-year, an increase of 16.3 percentage points year-on-year. The total output value of the chemical industry was 311.34 billion yuan, an increase of 29.4%; the total output value of the oil and natural gas extraction industry was 105.2 billion yuan, an increase of 47.3%; the total output value of the oil refining industry was 175.79 billion yuan, an increase of 37.4%; the total output value of the special equipment manufacturing was 11.84 billion yuan, an increase 50.5%. The market was relatively stable, with prices running at a high level overall; the ratio of production to sales was 97.2%, a slight decrease from the same period of last year. In August, the export delivery value of the whole industry was 36.92 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% over the same period of last year, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year. From January to August, the industry's total output value was 4.444 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.9%, an increase of 12.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the product sales rate was 98.3%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year.
However, at present, the growth rate of production in some industries has slowed down markedly, and the growth rate of exports has fallen sharply; the price increase is still at a high level; the international financial market continues to deteriorate; the world economic situation is not optimistic; uncertainties and uncertainties in the economic operation of the industry should be aroused. attention.
First of all, the continuous turbulence in international finance may further slow down the world economy. Recently, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, has declared bankruptcy, which has intensified the turmoil in the international financial market and increased the downside risks to the global economy. In particular, economic growth in the United States and Western Europe may further slow down, which will have a major impact on China’s exports and investment.
Second, the increase in product prices is still high. In August, driven by rising costs, the domestic market prices for petroleum and chemical products were generally high and the price increase was still relatively large. Among the 168 kinds of petroleum and chemical products that are closely followed by the petrochemical association, prices have risen 136 times year-on-year, accounting for 81%, and 32 have fallen, accounting for 19%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial products in August rose 10.1% year-on-year, while the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 15.3%.
Third, the growth rate of production in some industries has slowed down significantly, and the growth rate of exports has fallen sharply. In the first eight months of this year, the increase in the output of synthetic resin fell 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, the increase in synthetic fiber fell by about 14 percentage points, the increase in ethylene production dropped by about 16 percentage points, and chemical fertilizer dropped by 5.7 percentage points. In the same period, the export delivery value of composite materials fell by 14 percentage points, the export delivery value of the paints and pigments industry fell by 23.5 percentage points, the fertilizer dropped sharply by 55.7 percentage points, and the rubber products fell by 14.5 percentage points. If the growth rate of production continues to slow down significantly, the increase in exports will continue to fall sharply, which will have serious adverse effects on the industry.
In the fourth quarter of this year, the global financial turmoil may intensify, the world economy will further slow down, and the external environment for the economic operation of the industry may continue to deteriorate. At the same time, it should also be noted that the ability of the oil and chemical industries to respond to risks has increased significantly. According to the analysis, under the current situation that the world economy is not very good, international crude oil prices have already entered the downward track and are likely to remain near 100 US dollars, which will give hope to domestic refinery companies. With the adjustment of the domestic “one guarantee, one control†macroeconomic policy, it is expected that the oil and chemical industry will maintain relatively stable growth in the fourth quarter of this year. From September to December of this year, the growth rate of total industry output value may slow down. The annual increase will be about 28%; sales revenue will increase by about 27%; if international oil prices continue to maintain steady, there will be no big fluctuations, and the refining industry may be able to come out in October. The predicament will achieve profitability; the import and export trade will continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth, with an increase of about 35%; fixed asset investment will increase by about 27%; and the output of major chemical products will increase by 5% to 20%.
According to statistics, in August, the industry achieved total industrial output value (current price, the same below) of 604.18 billion yuan, an increase of 34.9% year-on-year, an increase of 16.3 percentage points year-on-year. The total output value of the chemical industry was 311.34 billion yuan, an increase of 29.4%; the total output value of the oil and natural gas extraction industry was 105.2 billion yuan, an increase of 47.3%; the total output value of the oil refining industry was 175.79 billion yuan, an increase of 37.4%; the total output value of the special equipment manufacturing was 11.84 billion yuan, an increase 50.5%. The market was relatively stable, with prices running at a high level overall; the ratio of production to sales was 97.2%, a slight decrease from the same period of last year. In August, the export delivery value of the whole industry was 36.92 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% over the same period of last year, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year. From January to August, the industry's total output value was 4.444 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.9%, an increase of 12.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the product sales rate was 98.3%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year.
However, at present, the growth rate of production in some industries has slowed down markedly, and the growth rate of exports has fallen sharply; the price increase is still at a high level; the international financial market continues to deteriorate; the world economic situation is not optimistic; uncertainties and uncertainties in the economic operation of the industry should be aroused. attention.
First of all, the continuous turbulence in international finance may further slow down the world economy. Recently, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, has declared bankruptcy, which has intensified the turmoil in the international financial market and increased the downside risks to the global economy. In particular, economic growth in the United States and Western Europe may further slow down, which will have a major impact on China’s exports and investment.
Second, the increase in product prices is still high. In August, driven by rising costs, the domestic market prices for petroleum and chemical products were generally high and the price increase was still relatively large. Among the 168 kinds of petroleum and chemical products that are closely followed by the petrochemical association, prices have risen 136 times year-on-year, accounting for 81%, and 32 have fallen, accounting for 19%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial products in August rose 10.1% year-on-year, while the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 15.3%.
Third, the growth rate of production in some industries has slowed down significantly, and the growth rate of exports has fallen sharply. In the first eight months of this year, the increase in the output of synthetic resin fell 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, the increase in synthetic fiber fell by about 14 percentage points, the increase in ethylene production dropped by about 16 percentage points, and chemical fertilizer dropped by 5.7 percentage points. In the same period, the export delivery value of composite materials fell by 14 percentage points, the export delivery value of the paints and pigments industry fell by 23.5 percentage points, the fertilizer dropped sharply by 55.7 percentage points, and the rubber products fell by 14.5 percentage points. If the growth rate of production continues to slow down significantly, the increase in exports will continue to fall sharply, which will have serious adverse effects on the industry.
In the fourth quarter of this year, the global financial turmoil may intensify, the world economy will further slow down, and the external environment for the economic operation of the industry may continue to deteriorate. At the same time, it should also be noted that the ability of the oil and chemical industries to respond to risks has increased significantly. According to the analysis, under the current situation that the world economy is not very good, international crude oil prices have already entered the downward track and are likely to remain near 100 US dollars, which will give hope to domestic refinery companies. With the adjustment of the domestic “one guarantee, one control†macroeconomic policy, it is expected that the oil and chemical industry will maintain relatively stable growth in the fourth quarter of this year. From September to December of this year, the growth rate of total industry output value may slow down. The annual increase will be about 28%; sales revenue will increase by about 27%; if international oil prices continue to maintain steady, there will be no big fluctuations, and the refining industry may be able to come out in October. The predicament will achieve profitability; the import and export trade will continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth, with an increase of about 35%; fixed asset investment will increase by about 27%; and the output of major chemical products will increase by 5% to 20%.
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