Domestic demand remains strong According to the information released by the SASAC yesterday, among the 410 state-owned key enterprises, the profitability of the petroleum, petrochemical, and power industries has dropped drastically, and the two industries have reduced profits by 66.34 billion yuan in total. However, in addition to the above two industries, 19 profit-growing industries totaled 66.79 billion yuan.
Liang Futao, an investment strategist, analyzed the “First Financial Daily†that the main reason for the decline in industrial profit growth from January to April was the sharp decline in the efficiency of the petroleum, petrochemical, and power industries. The decline in the benefits of these industries has a greater bearing on price controls. In addition, the overall profit growth of the industrial economy is still possible, which also shows that despite the external economic downturn, domestic endogenous growth momentum is still large.
In fact, the revenue data of 410 state-owned key enterprises also confirmed the domestic market's robust demand.
From January to April, state-owned key enterprises realized operating income of 4,679.33 billion yuan, an increase of 25.7%. Although the growth rate fell by 0.9 percentage points from the first quarter, it increased by 6.5 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the income growth of major industries such as coal, trade, metallurgy, petroleum and petrochemical industries all exceeded 30%.
At the same time, the industrial production and sales rate of state-owned key enterprises increased significantly in the same period. From January to April, the industrial production and sales rate was 98.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. The pharmaceutical, metallurgical, chemical and automotive industries increased by more than 2% year-on-year.
The second quarter needs careful observation Since the beginning of this year, economic uncertainties have been increasing. From the perspective of external factors, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has caused financial turmoil in the world and has affected the domestic market. As a result, the growth rate of exports has been declining. As international oil prices continue to rise, the pressure on production costs has increased. From an internal point of view, the continuous tightening of monetary policy has aggravated corporate capital costs.
However, the influence of internal and external factors on the performance of various industries has been mixed, making the investment strategy in the industry more differentiated strategy.
From January to April, state-owned key enterprises realized sales of export products of 244.31 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7%. Although the growth rate has significantly decreased compared with the same period of last year, it has accelerated growth compared with the previous two months, especially machinery, chemicals, Exports of petroleum, petrochemical and automobile industries all exceeded 38%.
From January to April, the total assets of state-owned key enterprises amounted to 19874.03 billion yuan, an increase of 21.7%, and the growth rate far exceeded the highest level in the previous year. Non-ferrous metals, coal, metallurgy, construction, and other industries have both increased their asset growth by over 33%. The above four industries are the industry with rapid growth in fixed asset investment from January to April, reflecting the expectation of the market demand for these industries is still rising.
The SASAC also analyzed that after the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province, the reconstruction of the disaster area brought huge demand to state-owned key enterprises. In particular, energy, metallurgy, machinery, building materials, chemicals, and communications industries will play an important role in the reconstruction work. Therefore, state-owned key enterprises will continue to develop rapidly over a period of time and their efficiency will also increase slightly.
“From the trend, the April data is not enough to explain the trend in the second quarter. However, considering the earthquake and the continuing economic downturn in the United States, the economic growth and performance growth in the second quarter are still uncertain. At the same time, the snowstorm in the beginning of the year and recent earthquakes, etc. Both will intensify investment growth." Liang Futao said, "If the second quarter's corporate performance is better than the first quarter, and the liquidity in the market has increased, "the size of non-" lifting the easing has eased, with the market valuation rebounded, the market The performance will be more moderate than at present."
State-owned enterprises still need to have a "tight day"
Although the production and sales of state-owned key enterprises from January to April performed well and their operating income grew rapidly, the SASAC cautioned that state-owned enterprises must have “closely prepared†preparations.
The SASAC Director Li Rongrong said at the video briefing on the economic situation in the first quarter of 2008 that state-owned enterprises are currently estimating themselves too high, that the situation is seriously underestimated, that expenditure arrangements are still relatively relaxed, and that cost pressures and requirements are still not high enough.
In response to multiple uncertainties such as the slowdown in external demand, rising raw material prices, tightening credit, unstable capital markets, and resource price reforms that cannot be implemented in the short term, Li Rongrong requires state-owned enterprises to achieve “closely-in-extension†and prevent financial risks.
Some central enterprises have already saved expenses in accordance with the SASAC's requirements. The research team of PetroChina has decided that new office buildings will not be allowed, existing homes will not be renovated, cars will be renewed, and corporate spending will start from headquarters.
At the meeting of the central enterprises on the earthquake relief and reconstruction work on May 24, Li Rongrong once again demanded that, in the face of the new situation, the central enterprises must strengthen their awareness of crisis and make full preparations for the days ahead.
“State-owned enterprises must vigorously carry out various conservation activities in their enterprises, save every single kilowatt hour of electricity, every drop of water, every grain, and every piece of paper. They must formulate concrete measures to reduce costs, reduce non-productive expenditures, and reduce management costs. , effectively reducing production and operating costs.†Li Rongrong said at the meeting, “At the same time, we must attach great importance to safe production, pay special attention to the onset of the flood season and the typhoon brought about by the climate danger, to ensure safe production and business stability.â€
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