Sales volume continues to decline

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 52% in May, which was lower than the 0.9% in April. It has declined for two consecutive months this year. May continued to decline in April.

According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, excavator sales for the first time in May showed negative growth year-on-year, down 10% year-on-year, and bulldozer sales fell 34% year-on-year, while loader sales remained stable year-on-year, but fell more than 20% month-on-month. This was the second major decline in the number of major construction machinery products in April after the ring fell.

Radical Marketing Overdraft Future

After various types of construction machinery increased sharply in March this year, sales of all types of construction machinery suddenly fell in April and fell more sharply than in the previous quarter, among which the excavator fell by 38% from the previous month, the loader decreased by 28% month-on-month, and the bulldozer decreased month-on-month. 32%. The year-on-year increase of bulldozers decreased from 66% in March to 1.19% in April. The year-on-year increase of loaders fell from 37.17% in March to -2.5% in April.

The data fell sharply in April and was generally considered by the industry as a special case at the time. Due to the irrational development of the entire industry in the first quarter, some companies have begun to adopt some irrational sales promotion measures in order to expand their influence in the industry and seize more market share, from buying large-scale household appliances to sending small cars, Small excavators and other prizes, until the implementation of zero-down payment mortgage purchase promotion measures, especially in the excavator industry, the most prominent performance, leading to the first quarter of the market broke out in advance.

In mid-June, Monita Investment conducted an on-site investigation of the sales of construction machinery, and concluded that the construction machinery market is in a downturn and dealers’ funds have deteriorated. They expect that the sales of major construction machinery, including cranes, loaders, and excavators, will fall from June to June. Some dealers believe that aggressive marketing in the first quarter has overdrawn future demand, and that dealers are making money for customers. It is very common that bank mortgage funds are difficult to be issued as scheduled and the seller’s financial status is worsened; short-term sales are also affected by the rainy season and localities. The dual impact of government links, such as those in Shanxi, Liaoning, and other places, reflects that some of the infrastructure projects have been suspended due to the change of government.

The analysis of China Construction Machinery Business Network believes that an important reason for confirming the inflection point is the deceleration of investment in downstream industries. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total planned investment for new projects started from January to May 2011 was 7900.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly lower than the same period of 2010. In particular, investment in railways and highways has been slowed down, with almost no large scale. The project was launched. It can be said that the construction of affordable housing supported by policies is a decisive factor in determining the market performance of construction machinery in the second half of the year.

Silver tightening restrained growth

Sheng Chunfang, secretary general of the China Construction Machinery Association Concrete Machinery Branch, believes that the decline in sales of concrete machinery in May was mainly due to the tightening of monetary policy. The deposit reserve ratio has been raised repeatedly, and interest rates have been raised continuously. As a result, some users have changed their judgments. "Some users who have already paid the deposit have delayed delivery time."

Industry experts believe that as the CPI continues to climb, reaching 5.5% in May, it has hit a new high for many years, the central bank continued to increase the deposit reserve ratio, and has raised interest rates four times, tightening the funding face in economic life, affecting the project Mechanical sales. After falling back in April, it continued to decline rapidly in May. Excavators, loaders and other machinery were close to flat year-on-year, and the bulldozers experienced a significant year-on-year decline as the peak of the previous year was in May. The excessively loose credit sales policy in the first quarter led to the advance of some market demands. Under the dual pressures of the real economy and capital, all kinds of engineering machinery in June will still fall. In addition, the continuous dry weather in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in April and May has created favorable conditions for construction. Therefore, the impact on the construction machinery market is not too great. In June, the continuous heavy rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River turned from dry to dry, and the concrete construction conditions deteriorated. Therefore, machinery sales will enter the off-season from June. Changes in the situation may have to wait until July, and the construction machinery market will continue to Maintain weakness.

Trends throughout the year are still optimistic

On June 20, the "Circular on the Use of Bond Financing to Support the Construction of Guaranteed Housing" formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission has been issued to various local governments to explicitly allow investment and financing platform companies to apply for the issuance of corporate bonds to raise funds. This means that the biggest bottleneck in the construction of affordable housing has been a breakthrough in the financing issue. In combination with the previous requirements of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the construction of affordable housing must be fully started before the end of November. Therefore, it is expected that the construction of affordable housing will start at a significant speed in the third quarter and will form a concentrated pull for construction machinery, especially earth-moving machinery and concrete machinery.

According to the analysis, the impact of state-owned housing construction investment on construction machinery will not only remain in the second half of 2011. As an important part of the “12th Five-Year Plan”, the construction of affordable housing will continue throughout the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, with a total investment of over 4.5% Trillions of dollars. In 2011, the highest amount of capital investment in five years, the start target is 10 million sets, and the investment amount will reach 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 29% of the entire investment plan; the proportion of investment in 2012 will drop to 22% in 2013~ The proportion of investment in 2015 was 17%, 16% and 16% respectively. Essence Securities believes that the future trend of real estate regulation and credit policies will continue to be a key factor constraining the development of the industry. The start of the government planning project in the second half of the year will help the sales of the construction machinery industry maintain growth.

On June 22, Su Zimeng, secretary general of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said that in the first five months of operation of the domestic construction machinery industry, he said that in 2011, exports will increase by more than 25% and return to the highest level in 2008. Although the construction machinery industry sales data in the first two months of the second quarter showed a downward trend, the China Construction Machinery Industry Association still maintains a forecast of 17% growth in sales revenue of the entire industry.