The growth rate of petrochemical and other raw material industries is still not slow

On June 2, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Office of Operational Surveillance and Coordination issued a "Spring Report on the Operation of China's Industrial Economy in 2011". The report believes that the current overall operation of the industrial economy is stable, but it also faces difficulties and problems such as rising production costs and rapid growth of product inventories. It is expected that the petrochemical and other raw material industries will maintain a certain level of growth in the latter part of the year due to investment and demand. The industrial added value above designated size is expected to increase by 11% to 12%.

The report pointed out that from January to April of this year, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 14.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year, of which the value-added of raw material industry increased by 12.5% ​​year-on-year. The export value of industrial exports above designated size increased by 20.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down by 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year, of which the value of export delivery of raw material industry increased by 27%, and fell by 12.7% from the same period of last year. Industrial fixed asset investment increased by 24.6% year-on-year, of which manufacturing investment increased by 29%. Under the dual effects of macro-control and market factors, the investment in the six high-energy-consuming industries increased by 13.7% year-on-year, representing a year-on-year growth rate decrease of 1.1 percentage points, and 10.9 percentage points lower than the average level of industrial investment during the same period.

According to the report, from the previous four months, the overall operation of the industrial economy was stable, but it also faced many difficulties and problems. First, production costs continued to rise, and business operations became more difficult. The purchase price index of industrial producers rose by 10.3% year-on-year, while the ex-factory price of industrial producers increased only 7% year-on-year, and labor costs also continued to increase. The second is the tightening of resource and environmental constraints, the increase of pressure for factor protection, and the fact that the power supply is not in the off-season, and the electricity supply gap may increase during the summer peak season. Third, the capital environment is generally tight, and the problem of financing for SMEs is more prominent. Fourthly, the growth of finished goods inventories was rapid, and the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 23.2% year-on-year, an increase of 12 percentage points from the end of last year, and the inventory of finished products in the petrochemical, light industry and textile industries increased by more than 20% year-on-year.

The report predicts that the overall growth rate of industrial investment will remain at around 25% this year. The petrochemical and other raw material industries will maintain a certain level of growth driven by investment and demand. However, the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction and power shortage may affect the growth rate. The above-mentioned industrial added value increased by 11% to 12% year-on-year, while the industry-wide above-scale industrial added value target set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was expected to grow by about 11%. In the second half of the year, shrinking monetary policy will still be the main macro-control policy, and the operation of the real economy will still face the challenges of “tight balance” and “hard constraints” for the supply of various security factors.

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