The polarization of the domestic auto market has become increasingly fierce

“The first half of the Chinese auto market cannot be simply attributed to good or bad, but to an imbalance in development.” Jia Xinguang, chief analyst of China Automotive Industry Consulting Development Co., summed up this way.

According to the statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative sales of automobiles in the first half of the year were 9,598,100, and the cumulative sales of passenger cars were 7,623,500. Among them, the sale of self-owned brand passenger cars was 3.5111 million, which was a year-on-year decrease of 0.16%, accounting for 41.39% of the passenger car sales, and the occupancy rate was down 3% compared with the same period last year. The sales of self-owned brand cars was 1,423,300, down 6.78% year-on-year; The sales volume was 27.21%, which was a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from the same period of last year. Compared to the previous years' rapid development, independent brands have lost their sight and are now struggling. After the collective carnival, the Chinese auto market is encountering two heavy fires.

The two levels of differentiation have intensified recently. The China Passenger Cars Association announced the sales statistics of Chinese auto companies in the first half of the year. From the table, we can see that only FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai GM, Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle and FAW Car have completed sales for six months. In addition to the Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle and the FAW Car, other independent brand companies have not achieved the target sales volume, and nearly 80% have not passed. This means that for independent brands with lower bicycle prices and lower profits, it means that the company The overall profitability gap with foreign companies is widening.

It can be said that in the first half of the year, the goal of car companies is generally not satisfactory, and the target compliance rate is generally lower than 50%. However, the completion rate of joint venture brands is mostly over 45%. It is not difficult for these companies to complete the annual targets at the end of the year. However, in terms of independent brands, most of the completion rates are between 20% and 30%, and the sales gap is obvious. Of the top ten companies in the first half of the year, only Chery Automobiles and Geely Automobile were on the list. In addition, although FAW Car has reached its half-year sales target, the year-on-year growth rate was -36.20%, setting the biggest decline in the auto market this year.

Contrasting with domestic independent brands, the sales of foreign companies still continue to grow. From the year-on-year growth rate of foreign brand passenger cars in the first half of the year, both the Japanese, German, American, and legal systems were higher than the same period of last year, with the German and Japanese systems growing more than 10% year-on-year. The German luxury car brands represented by Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi, and the US luxury car brands represented by Cadillac have seen particularly significant growth in the first half of the year, and their growth rate has exceeded the industry average.

The polarization of the two levels in the first half of the year is a result of the concerted efforts of all parties. Compared with the past, the cold weather in the first half of this year was largely due to the constant pressure from foreign brands or auto joint ventures. At present, China has become the world's largest auto market. The brands of Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have firmly established themselves in China, and our own brand share has been constantly eroded. Under the pressure of multinational branded products, sales were hindered. In the first half of the year, the phenomenon of the backlog of companies responding to the market was more and heavier. Among them, the inventory of independent brand dealers was around 2.1 (the normal level was 1-1.5), and some local dealers even had a stock ratio of 1:3. It is not only the interests of distributors that a large number of warehouses damage, but it will also cause a series of adverse effects on the brand.

On the other hand, the current national macro-control policy has shifted from the previous stimulation of automobile sales to industrial restructuring. From the first half of 2009, the government launched a series of policies to stimulate the automobile market in response to the financial crisis. This includes a series of policies to expand automobile consumption such as vehicle purchase tax reduction, trade-in replacement, and so on. In response to these policies, the Chinese automobile market Rapidly rising, independent brands are no exception. In 2010, the Chinese auto market surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest auto market. However, in 2011, the policies for stimulating consumption of cars, such as the reduction of vehicle purchase tax, car-to-country, and trade-in replacement, all withdrew. The annual production and sales of automobiles increased by 0.84% ​​and 2.45%, respectively, which was the lowest growth rate in the past decade or so. The era of making money for all car companies is gone forever. It is also reasonable for the general auto market pattern to become two levels of differentiation.

The quasi-node is king's room for the development of independent brands in the second half of the year. Jia Xinguang said that in the face of an imbalanced pattern, whether the independent brands can step on the policy node of energy-saving and emission reduction is a crucial step, and the country is not suitable for large-scale stimulation at present. Instead, the market has turned to energy-saving emission reductions. Recently, Zhang Xiangmu, Director of the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated at the Global Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Summit that the “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan” will be issued by the State Council in the near future. The plan will surface with a series of industrial support policies, including new energy vehicles exempt from vehicle purchase tax, VAT tax rate to 13%. In addition, according to Luo Jun, CEO of the Asian Manufacturing Association, this year, the Ministry of Finance will provide 1 billion to 2 billion yuan of funds each year to support the development of energy-saving and new energy auto industry. In the next decade, it will be a tough time for the auto industry to speed up transformation and upgrade and enhance its core competitiveness. Chinese independent brand enterprises should improve their ability for independent innovation, accelerate structural adjustment, and promote energy conservation and emission reduction of traditional fuel vehicles. If we can step on this node and give priority to cultivating and developing new energy vehicles, then our own brands will be in an advantageous position in the future "energy-saving war."

"Cars go to the countryside" is another important node in the second half of the year. If at the time of “cars going to the countryside”, it is timely to launch the countryside-going models and carry out special marketing and service activities. This is a good opportunity for the self-owned brands to recapture the market and reverse the polarization situation in the second half of the year.