Under the new price adjustment mechanism, the price of refined oil products is adjusted or stranded

April 10, 2013 will be the first price adjustment window after the introduction of a new pricing mechanism for domestic refined oil products. However, the current trend of international crude oil prices may make the first adjustment of refined oil products under the new mechanism face the possibility of being stranded.

On April 7, the reporter interviewed several market forecasting agencies and learned that the price adjustment window on April 10 may not be able to open because there is a possibility that the refined oil price adjustment rate is lower than 50 yuan per ton, and the price adjustment is likely to be postponed to the next 10 The working day is around April 25th.

The demand for refined oil products in the off-season coincided with the introduction of a new pricing mechanism that has made traders in the refined oil market even more confused. The sales companies of PetroChina and Sinopec have also secretly ranted, and the wholesale of gasoline and diesel once again fell into the "freezing point."

Increase or below 50 yuan/ton

The new pricing mechanism for refined oil products after the Ching Ming Festival will be implemented for the first time. If the refined oil price adjustment window opens on April 10, it will become the first refined oil price adjustment since the introduction of the new mechanism.

Since the highest retail price of refined oil was lowered on March 27, the international crude oil market experienced six consecutive gains. Then, under the pressure of poor economic data in Europe and the United States, international oil prices plunged nearly 5% for three consecutive days.

As of the close of April 5, the London May Brent crude contract fell by $2.22, a decrease of 2.09% from the previous trading day.

Treasure Island analyst Han Jingyuan told reporters that during the domestic Ching Ming holiday period, crude oil suffered successive downturns in economic data and rising inventory pressure, and the price decline was hard to stop.

In accordance with the refined oil pricing and improvement mechanism, based on the domestic crude oil import structure and the settlement and affiliation varieties, Treasure Island selected four types of crude oil as reference, namely Brent, Brent DTD, Dubai and ESPO.

According to calculations, as of the seventh working day of April 7, the reference crude oil varieties (Brent, Brent DTD, Dubai, ESPO) had a rate of change of 0.6%, and the rate of increase was smaller than before the holiday.

The Zhuo Chuang information model estimates that WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.65% in nearly 8 working days compared to the average price in the previous 10 working days, while Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.08%. Dubai, Xinta and Oman crude oils were presented separately. In the rally, only the Brent DTD crude oil spot showed a slight decline.

Han Jingyuan believes that the price adjustment window originally scheduled for April 10 will be closed temporarily due to an increase of less than RMB 50/ton or RMB 0.05/liter.

The new pricing mechanism for refined oil clearly stated that if “the price adjustment is lower than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made and the cumulative or offset will be included in the next price adjustment”.

“Overall, as of now, the domestic refined oil is still within the price increase range.” Chen Qing, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang said, “When the company meets 10 working days, the adjustment range of domestic refined oil may be less than RMB 50 yuan. Tons, but no adjustment is made."

The rate of change of the rate of change in the refined oil product price index of Anxun Siswangwang indicated that as of April 5, the rate of change index was 0.68%, and on April 10th, the price adjustment rate was forecast to reach RMB 40/t. In the next few working days, the average price of Brent futures will fall to US$109/barrel. The increase in the retail price of refined oil products may approach the threshold of 50 yuan/ton, making it difficult to realize the retail price of refined oil products next week.

Han Jingyuan analyzed that if the price adjustment window is closed, the pricing cycle will be recalculated and the next cycle time will be delayed or will be April 24-25.

Gasoline and diesel middlemen choose to wait and see

The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for refined oil products has made traders in the refined oil market even more confused. Almost all middlemen have stated that frequent adjustments in retail prices will not only increase risk, but also because the two-week adjustment will not be significant, speculative profits will be Dramatically compressed. In the coming period, they will choose to wait and see, and the replenishment cycle will also narrow to around a week.

Sinopec and CNPC are also secretly complaining because the overall tone of the refined oil market this year is oversupply. If speculative demand is suppressed by the new pricing mechanism, especially in the second quarter and the early third quarter, the demand for diesel is off-season, rigid demand is not supported, and post-sales are not supported. The task is difficult to accomplish.

Due to the poor sales in March, the sales volume of the two giants around the country has a deficit of about 30%, and the sales progress in individual regions has even completed only 50%.

According to An Xun, Sisuwang Energy estimates that due to the weak supply and demand relationship in the second quarter, the domestic diesel inventory is expected to remain at a level of more than 30 days, which means that domestic diesel resources will have a surplus of 2 million to 3.5 million tons per month.

The "two barrels of oil" refinery peaked during the period from the end of March to the middle of May. April was the lowest point of diesel supply in the second quarter. In June, supply rebounded to a record high.

“In April, the reduction in crude oil load due to overhaul was 2.51 million tons, and in May it was 1.71 million tons. In the second quarter of this year, the amount of crude oil processed in the refinery due to overhaul was almost the lowest in the past five years.” The analyst said.

At present, all parties in the refined oil market have disagreement on the trend of oil prices, and the supply of gasoline and diesel in the domestic market is the oversupply-driven demand. After the price adjustment, the market volume of the refined oil market is slightly better than that before the price adjustment, but it is still a light situation. .

April was the fiscal year of Europe and the United States, and the relative reduction in investment activities was not enough to support higher oil prices. Coupled with the frequent occurrence of debt crisis, international crude oil prices in April and May showed declines in recent years.

According to the above analysts, this has been the case in the past three years. In the second quarter of last year, the retail prices of domestic refined oil products fell in three consecutive series, which severely weighed on the market. If Brent futures price declines in the second quarter of this year, or it may make it difficult for the domestic refined oil market to form an expectation of upward adjustment of retail prices, there will be no actual end-user demand support, and the lack of speculative demand will lead to domestic gasoline and diesel. The market is worse.

According to the data, on April 2 domestic domestic diesel trucks were priced at RMB 7972/ton, which was RMB 37/ton lower than the price adjustment on March 27, and the average price of GB 93# gasoline vehicles was RMB 9302/ton, down from March 27th. 23 yuan/ton.

Gao Chengsha, analyst at Zhongyu Information, pointed out that after the introduction of the new mechanism, the operation mode of large-scale arbitrage among middlemen was challenged. In order to avoid the acceleration of price fluctuations after the implementation of the new mechanism, the risks to the company’s profitability are expected to be more in the short term. Watch the market, reduce purchases and continue to release inventory. Under the influence of this depressed mentality, the market resource circulation speed is slow, and the prices of gasoline and diesel are weak.

As of March 31, the total volume of gasoline and diesel commercial inventories of social wholesale companies in major provinces in China was 133,000 tons, which was a decrease of 2% from the previous half. Of which 53,000 tons of diesel, a decrease of 12% compared with half a month ago.

 

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