Cheng Yuan: The end of the ring decline is not the arrival of the auto market's high growth period

The information released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center shows that in August this year, the sales of automobiles exceeded the expectations of most people, which was an increase of 15.09% compared with the previous period and ended the decline for three consecutive months, a year-on-year increase of 55.72%. Although there is a certain gap compared to the first half. However, this does not mean that the auto market has entered a period of rapid growth. The arrival of the so-called "automobile inflection point" despite all expectations of the future "golden nine silver ten."

In terms of the increase, the market base in 2009 is very large, and it will not be possible to see such rapid growth again this year. In addition, from the second half of 2009 to the first half of this year, the rapid growth for more than a year has exceeded the society’s ability to sustain the growth of automobiles. The problems caused by automobiles, such as congestion, safety, environmental protection, and energy, have been discussed. many. This situation will affect the central government’s support for the development of the automobile market. It will even introduce different measures to control the development of the automobile. Second, it will cause problems due to the increase of automobiles, such as traffic difficulties caused by congestion, parking difficulties, etc. Affected some consumers' desire to buy.

We have always emphasized that the excessively high rate of development of Chinese automobiles is not sustainable, and it advocates a balanced, steady and sustained growth without major ups and downs. It is beneficial to the auto industry itself, to the country’s macroeconomic development, and to the formation of automobile society. .

Therefore, just relying on the sales rebound in August is not enough to explain the turning point in the market, and has entered a period of rapid growth. We can't just look at the market to pick up a bit and set it up immediately. When we look at the market tightening, we can immediately lower our target. This will cause the company to be thrown out of the car sooner or later.