Customization of container ships is controversial (Figure)

The rumor that Maersk Line is planning to build 18,000 TEU extra-large container ships has moved the nerves of the market. An important topic has been mentioned again: "Big" has no limit.

The industry announced that Maersk Line plans to build 18,000 TEU container ships in August. Recently, South Korean media disclosed that South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding is preparing to accept orders from Maersk Line to build 20 container ships, with a total value of US$4 billion. According to sources, the two parties are closely negotiating for the relevant transactions and are even expected to formally order before the end of the year. They may first order 10 ships, each of which will not exceed 200 million U.S. dollars.

Maersk's response to the rumors As a leading company in liner shipping industry, Maersk Line has always been a pioneer in the construction of large-scale container ships. The first 6000TEU container ship was developed and put into use by Maersk Line. In August 2006, the 12,000-TEU container ship “Emma Maersk” started construction at Maersk Line in Denmark at the Odense Marine Shipyard in Denmark, and was officially put into operation, setting a precedent for the industry-wide ten thousand container vessels, followed by Mediterranean shipping and Thousands of tanks on the flyships have also been delivered one after another.

If the news of Maersk Line’s ordering of 18,000 TEU container ships is true, it is unprecedented in the industry and it is very likely that other peers will follow suit. At present, the maximum capacity of container vessels under operation is about 14,000 TEU. Many major liner companies are looking to reduce their costs by operating large vessels.

The author sought confirmation from Maersk (China) Ltd. on the matter. The other party responded with the name of Søren Andersen, Maersk’s vice president and head of the ship management department.

Søren Andersen said: “Given that the demand for different types of container ships will continue to be maintained, I do not think there will be any doubt that we will introduce larger container vessels in the future. The volumes will continue to rise, so we will of course consider the economies of scale in container transport. In our view, one of the key factors is the relationship between the size of the ship's tonnage and the environment.”

"Using the world's largest container ship, Emma Maersk, to transport container cargo from Asia to Europe, its CO2 emissions are only half of the current average displacement of container ships. Most of these advantages are attributed to The huge tonnage of the ship."

Søren Andersen stated: "Our services will continue to be dedicated to improving environmental benefits and saving fuel, and the size of the ship's tonnage is one of the key factors."

Although Maersk Line has not responded positively to the rumors of custom-built 18,000 TEU extra-large container ships, we can judge from its representation that the international liner shipping industry’s demand for ultra-large container ships is developing vigorously, mainly Enticing high efficiency and high environmental protection expectations.

In theory, the biggest benefit brought by a large container ship with a single vessel capacity of more than 8000 TEU is that the container traffic of each voyage is high, and the number of ports that are affiliated with it is small, thereby improving the economic efficiency of the container ship operator. It is estimated that the average cost per container of the 8000 TEU container ship is approximately 10% to 12% lower than that of a single vessel of 5,000 to 6,000 TEU containers, which is 30% lower than a single vessel capacity 4000 TEU container ship.

At the same time, the industry generally agrees that large-scale ships are one of the modes of environmental protection operations. Under the effect of economic scale, the amount of fuel consumed per TEU must be reduced. As early as 20 years ago, people had researched and analyzed the difference in operating costs between two 4000 TEU container ships and one 8000 TEU container ship. However, if we compare two 8000 TEU container ships with one 16,000 TEU container ship, The latter will reduce the cost of capital by 20% and the cost of fuel by 40%.

The statistics of the ship's large-scale speed show that from the first modified container ship in 1956 to today's 10,000-container container ship, the liner industry spent 50 years to complete the historic upgrading of container transportation tools. At the end of the 1970s, the International Organization for Standardization established a unified container specification standard. Since this time, container shipping has entered a period of rapid development, and the speed of large-scale ships is dizzying.

In the 1960s, container ships built in the mid-1960s had a maximum capacity of less than 1000 TEU. In the 1970s, the liner companies began to order more than 1,000 TEU second-generation container ships; in the 1980s, 3000 TEU container ships debuted to accommodate global shipping. The need to make full use of the navigation capacity of the Panama Canal, the ship's width is set to 32.20 meters, known as the Panamax container ship; in 1988, the U.S. President’s ship built the 4340TEU “President Truman”, a container ship of the Panamax type In the mid-1990s, container vessels with a vessel width of more than 40 meters and a carrying capacity of 5,000 to 6,000 TEU containers were put into operation; just entering the 21st century, the Type 6674 TEU "Southampton" and the Maersk Group-made Type 7660 TEU were ordered by Steel Works." The "Matthew Monarch" containership was put into use one after another. In the first 10 years of the new century, from 8,000 TEU to 12,000 TEU, to today's 18,000 TEU, the number of container ships on board has increased at an alarming rate.

Herman Klein, executive director of Lloyd's Register of Shipping, said that the big ship is the development trend of the container liner shipping industry. Even if the rumors about the Maersk Line booking the ship are not true, the order for the 18,000 TEU container ship is also expected. Will appear in the next year.

The feasibility of designing and manufacturing 10,000 TEU-plus container vessels has provided technical support for the super-large-scale container vessels. Some industry insiders even think that “the volume of future container vessels will not be constrained by the technical level”.

According to the Norwegian classification society, the Korean shipyard is currently developing 16,000 TEU container ships. According to the preliminary design guidelines, the factory has special requirements on the size, thickness and quality of the hull steel. The length and width of the hull are approximately 399 meters and 57 meters respectively, which is the same as Maersk Line's “Emma Maersk” series. The steel thickness of the upper hatch coaming is 75-80mm, and the steel with high strength (HT)47 must be used. The highest steel of the ship is currently the HT40. According to the design of South Korea's STX Shipbuilding Group, the length of a 22,000 TEU container ship is 470 meters, which is 17% higher than that of a 16,000 TEU container ship, and the hull size and steel plate requirements must be increased accordingly. More careful design and technical specifications are required.

DNV believes that from a technical point of view, the construction of a 22,000 TEU super-large container ship is not a problem, but it will take more time to resolve several major issues, in particular hull resistance and fuel consumption. . The resistance of the hull must be calculated for friction and water resistance. Both have an impact on the ratio of the length and width of the hull. At the same time, they have different weights at different speeds, which in turn affect the fuel consumption. They are considered by the shipowner.

1.25 million TEU-type ships or winners The DNV believes that in the 1970s, the largest container hold-up capacity was approximately 2000 TEU, which has soared to 14,000 TEU so far, and its capacity has been continuously improved. The most important reason is that it should be “globalized”. ". However, under the concern of global warming and reduction of carbon emissions, coupled with many factors such as processing capacity of container terminals, loading and unloading time, equipment level of transit ports, railways and road facilities, the importance of the “globalization” factor is decreasing. Whether the growth trend of capacity will continue will seem to be further discussed.

Liu Bin, director of the Institute of World Economics at Dalian Maritime University, believes that due to some limiting factors, the difficulty of operating a large ship is higher than the difficulty of construction.

Cost limit. The operating costs of container ships mainly include staff salaries, insurance, vessel management fees, port costs, and fuel costs. The operating cost of container ships decreased from 4000 TEU to 10,000 TEU. The operating cost of each container reached a minimum of US$1,400 at 10,000 TEU, and then operated at 18,000 TEU as the container ships expanded. Costs began to rise slowly. Therefore, considering the operating costs of a single container, 10,000 TEU container ships are the most advantageous in terms of operating costs, not the larger and cheaper.

Port restrictions. Ultra-large container ships are increasingly being put into international trade routes, and many container port terminals do not have the capacity to handle this high-speed development. At present, the depth of most container ports in the world is difficult to adapt to the docking of ultra-large container ships; the loading and unloading capacity of the ports is also limited, and the increase in the time makes the competitiveness of ultra-large container ships greatly reduced; the ultra-large container ships still need further development. Consider a series of issues such as terminal facilities, yards, logistics, computer systems, and inland transportation.

Route restrictions. The advantages of ultra-large container ships are high traffic volume, high average efficiency, low average fuel consumption of sea freight and more suitable for long-haul routes. To date, most of the ultra-large container vessels with a single vessel capacity of more than 8,000 TEU have been deployed on the Asia-Europe and Asia-North America Pan-Pacific routes. Therefore, the number of routes is very limited. In addition, ultra-large container ships are often plagued by "it is a direct flight or transit."

In addition to these three major limitations, DNV also pointed out that large ships do not necessarily bring greater cost-effectiveness, because ships always need more goods before they can realize the desire to reduce the cost of ultra-large container ships. Under the circumstances that the current volume of goods is not well-understood, it is unavoidable to question whether ultra-large container ships are the best way to regulate the supply of ships.

Well, we can not help but ask, due to the constraints of many factors in reality, after the container ship exceeded 10,000 TEU, can it be infinitely large? Can you continue to profit and maintain your advantage?

In this regard, Liu Bin believes that the excessive size of container ships will lead to low returns and high risks. Although the ultra-large container ship has become an inevitable trend, this trend should be gradual and moderate. Container ships, port conditions and financial costs require coordination, harmony and scientific development. Therefore, "1.25 million TEU container ships are the limits of development."

Although not so loyal, DNV has reached the same conclusion.

DNV stated that in the foreseeable future, the 125,000 TEU container ships can pass through the expanded Panama Canal and pass under the Bayonne Bridge in New York, which can exert economic scale effect. At the same time, without losing the operational flexibility, it will be a more advantageous container ship scale, or it will temporarily become a winner in the market.