Eleventh Five-Year Plan: The Auto Industry Takes the Road to Autonomy

In 2005, the "tenth five-year plan" for China's autos is nearing completion. Recently, at the 2005 China Automotive Industry Development International Forum co-sponsored by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center and the China Automotive Engineering Society, representatives from the government, companies, and the academic community focused on the upcoming 11th Five-Year Plan for the automotive industry. Discussed.
During the "10th Five-Year Plan" period, China's auto market has potential for sustainable development. The auto industry has gradually become a pillar industry. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, we can say goodbye to "market-for-technology" in the automotive industry in China, and how independent auto brands will develop. It will be the most serious challenge.
Cars account for nearly 2% of GDP
According to statistics, there are more than 5800 various types of production enterprises in the automotive industry in China. The total assets have exceeded trillion yuan. In 2004, the domestic automobile output reached 5.07 million vehicles, the total output value of the automobile industry reached more than RMB 11000 billion, and the industrial added value was more than RMB 250 billion. The proportion of the national GDP has risen from less than 1% in the late period of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” to nearly 2. %.
The increasing value of the added value of the auto industry in GDP has been increasing, which means that China's auto industry is gradually growing from a former childish industry to a pillar industry of the national economy. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, by the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period of 2010, the proportion of China’s auto industry’s added value in GDP will further increase to 2.5%.
The statistics provided by the National Development and Reform Commission also show that the main consumers in China’s auto market have shifted from group purchases and public funds purchases to private purchases. The proportion of private car ownership has increased from less than 40% at the end of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period to near. 60%.
The output of the “Eleventh Five-Year” car has broken 10 million. The relevant persons of the National Development and Reform Commission have also disclosed the related targets of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” of China’s autos. The most noteworthy point is that by 2010, China’s auto production will reach 10 million vehicles.
It is predicted that by 2010, the demand in China's auto market will be 8 to 9 million vehicles, the vehicle output will be around 10 million, the vehicle ownership will reach about 55 million, and the auto-ization level will reach 40 vehicles/thousand. At that time, China's auto industry will basically form the leading capacity for industrial development, resource allocation, and market development; it will basically develop the auto development and technological innovation capabilities of auto products; the industrial structure adjustment will achieve results; energy conservation, material saving, environmental protection, safety, and development of circular economy. The application of technology will also reach the international advanced level. It will be able to participate more deeply in international competition and achieve sustainable development.
Self-owned brand is the key to success or failure During the fifteenth period, the domestic auto “innovation” gradually warms up. At the Fifth Plenary Session of the 16th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held recently, the first time the independent innovation was included as a national strategy in the communique of the Plenary, the concept of “independent innovation” rose to the level of government operations, and the automobile industry “changed the market for technology”. The route began to cool down as the policy changed. The "Eleventh Five-Year" period is the key to the development of independent brands in the domestic automobile industry.
At present, the three major auto groups have set their own brand development goals. SAIC's “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” strategy aims to: By 2010, it will build an international auto company with a total vehicle scale of 2 million, and form its own brand management system. The 2 million vehicle fleet includes 600,000 self-owned brand cars and nearly 40,000 to 50,000 new energy vehicles. Its sales revenue has doubled to about 300 billion yuan. FAW Group also has a similarly ambitious goal: By 2010, the total sales volume will be 2 million, including 1 million independent brands, with a market share of 20% and sales revenue of 220 billion yuan. Although a person in charge of the Dongfeng Group declined to disclose detailed plans in an interview with reporters, he also said that independent brands will be the highlight of their future development.
At the same time, the reporter also learned from inside the GAC Group that the company’s latest development plan for the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” disclosed for the first time its own brand automobile development plan: In the passenger vehicle segment, the company’s vehicle scale will reach 1.1 million in 2010. The number of self-developed branded cars will account for a certain share; for commercial vehicle plates, the annual production capacity will reach 230,000 in 2010; the overall sales volume of motorcycles will reach 1.5 million. After the acquisition of British Rover Automotive, NAC also announced the official development of its own brand.
Multi-channel self-owned brands Although SAIC, FAW and other talk about their own brands, but this can not hide the panic and a little helplessness in the heart of the company. The reason for the panic is that independent brands are already on the verge and they do not have the core technology of manufacturing.
As in the 20-year joint venture, multinationals such as Volkswagen have consistently refused to transfer advanced technology and refused to intervene in the design of Chinese companies. The R&D of domestic companies has been recycling the old technology. And because they are busy digesting and absorbing the technology of the joint venture, many companies have voluntarily given up their own R&D.
According to analysis by industry insiders, facing major technological deficiencies, several major automotive groups are likely to complete the planning of their own brands through market mergers and acquisitions. This approach and the auto group intend to increase market share through mergers and acquisitions with a view to achieving a 15% market share. The goals are similar (15% is the support line of a large enterprise group established by the state). In the automotive independent brands, the acquisition can also achieve the purpose of the development of independent brands.

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