Highlights of the first working group report of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

The city discussed the fifth evaluation report (AR5) decision maker (SPM) and passed it at 7 o'clock in the morning. IPCC immediately followed the 36th plenary meeting of Shikai, and the full text of the report, "Climate Change 2013: Basic Science Foundation", according to the IPCC assessment report working procedures, 259 scientists from 39 countries, in the WGT co-chairman Under the leadership of the group bureau, the project was funded according to the fourth evaluation report in 2007: M,. , 人 研 研 研 H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 41 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖 〖寐 circle and miscellaneous ball change research, qcihgietWg swim. cn sea ice range / 16: foot giant temperature anomaly / °C temperature anomaly / "C temperature anomaly / X: 6 o | (HH dish AR5ss sister) ifmp Shower: 5 鲋 身 body fta 呤 SM itching tear Bwic letter) tt stupid is湎,% Zhuang 7 with the state 缉漭腙蚶, £ 脔 脔 7 7 base, 谇 ,, speak 冲 > 5 逄 brew 0 § A00, i Driving type sJr Zheluo 褂泠茚S chrysanthemum. 2007a leaching, window 厩: one 筮犟 3 abuse 4 sweat mushroom, fcvTM3J1i 诛 诛 sa sparse search - Xue 腠砘 climate system energy accumulation distribution (relative to 1971) (quoted from AR5W Chapter 3) phase 1 Shen Dahe, Etc.: The IPC Section S炊 Evaluation Report The first X group report is abandoning the conclusion that it is twice the rate of temperature increase since 1880. In the past three consecutive years 2002-2011, the ice storage S of the Greenland ice sheet decreased by about 215Gt (lGt=109t) per year, and the Antarctic ice sheet decreased by about 147Gt per year. The temperature of permafrost in most areas has increased.

The results of the marine thermal enthalpy are a highlight of this report.

Between 1971 and 2010, the thermal stupidity of the ocean h舅 (~7m) increased by about 17x1 (FJ, the temperature rise near the ocean surface is the highest, and the seawater above 75m is heated up to 0.11 C/la. The ocean is in the energy storage of the climate system. In the main position, 60% of the net energy generated by human activities to emit greenhouse gases is stored in the upper ocean 33% stored in the beam ocean below 700m, 3% heating the cryosphere, 3% heating the land, only 1% used To warm the popularity of 贽(). Between 1901 and 2010, the dry seawater was heated, the snow melted, and the land stored in the ocean. The global sea level rose by 0.19 and the average rate was 1.7 mm/a, the highest in the past two thousand years. The sea level rise has been accelerating in the near future. The average global sea level rise rate in 1993-2010 was as high as 3.2 1750. Since the industrialization of human society, the concentration of greenhouse gases such as COCHnN20 in the global atmosphere has continued to rise. The global atmosphere of C02, CH4 and N20 in 2012. The concentrations reached 393.1x1, 160% and 20%, respectively, which was the highest in nearly 800,000 years. The increase in greenhouse gas concentration since the T industry was mainly caused by the use of fossil fuel emissions and land use emissions. 0-2011, fossil fuel combustion and cement production released to the atmosphere of up to 32 375 GtC, deforestation and other land use changes have been estimated to have released 180GtC, so the cumulative emissions of artificial C02 have reached 555GtC (). At the same time! About 30% of the people's CO emissions are strictly acidified, and their pH has dropped by 0.1, which is equivalent to a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration, which will undoubtedly have an impact on the marine ecosystem.

In short, the observations are further conquered, and the warming of the climate system is beyond doubt.

Man-made (:02 emissions and their distribution in the atmosphere, land and oceans) from 1750 to 20 (the SAR5W technology) IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 211 years radiation forcing estimates and their range (relative to 175 years) From ARS decision makers>2 The causes of climate change change the natural and anthropogenic forcing of the Earth's energy budget is the driving force of climate change> And the forcing force can quantitatively describe the effects of natural and human factors on climate change. Positive radiative forcing values ​​indicate this Because of the sitting, the surface of the earth and the ground are too gas-filled, and the negative value is cold. The eAR5 uses radiation forcing to quantify the contribution of different driving factors to temperature changes. Unlike AR4, AR5 introduces the concept of effective radiation forcing. This is another highlight of the AR5.

Since 1750, the total radiative forcing has been positive, which is the main cause of the warming of the climate system. The d75-211 artificially imposed forced force of 2.29W/rf, which is 25 years of artificial radiative forcing value calculated by AR4. .6W/rf 《 "%, radiative forcing caused by changes in solar irradiance than natural factors, more than 5 times a increase in atmospheric c+o2 concentration since industrialization has the greatest contribution to total forcing forcing, radiation from C02 emissions Forcing the atmospheric driving term generated at 1.68 nm for 4 years. If other carbon-containing gas emissions are included, the radiative forcing value of 02 will be 1.82. 12()6 Seek, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions cause climate change The warm conclusion is obvious.

Since the HAR4, the climate system model has been greatly developed and the simulation performance has been improved. The model can reproduce the observed continental scale temperature patterns and multi-decadal trends, including the rapid and moderate volcanic eruption since the mid-20th century, with the rapid improvement of the simulation ability and the detection attribution method. The continuous development of AR5 has quantified the temperature changes in the past 60 years. n can be seen from 5, between 19W and 2010, the global average surface warming caused by greenhouse gases is between 0.5 and 1.3, including the aerosol cooling effect. The contribution of other people to the forced contribution of the ft-0.6 climate system internal variability is between -0.1 and .1X:. Taken together, the warming phase of 0.6~0.71 observed during the contribution of these evaluations shows that human activities have led to more than half of global warming since the 1950s (general radiative forcing m) Climate Change Research Progress C02 Emissions/GtC Calculated as a function of + ball C02 cumulative emissions in different scenarios + ball average surface temperature change (relative to 1861 policy makers) C02 cumulative emissions / GtC02 zone strong precipitation intensity may be added Large, the frequency of occurrence may increase, the global precipitation will show the trend of “the more people get more wet than the wet ones.” Arctic sea ice will continue to melt, the global glacial volume and the northern hemisphere spring will have a smaller range, the same sea level It will rise. In the 21st century, the range of 9 Arctic sea ice will be reduced by 43%~94%, and will decrease by 8%~34% in February; the global glacier volume will be reduced by 15%~855%, the northern hemisphere spring The snow cover will be reduced by 7% to 25%; the global sea sapphire will rise by 0.26~0.82m. AR5 also points out that the average surface warming of softball in the late 21st and later elbow periods depends mainly on cumulative co2 emissions. Global warming, we must drastically reduce the cold The body discharge 9AR5 gives the global cumulative emissions of 2'C heating U standard K. If the cumulative C02 cumulative emissions g from 1861 to 1880 is controlled at 1000GtC (about 367GtC02), then human right >66% possible Sexuality will control the future temperature increase within 2 °C (relative to 1861 - 1880); if the artificial C02 cumulative emission limit is put to 1570GtC. (about 5760GtC02) 5 then only >33.% possibility to achieve temperature Controlling the Japanese standard. In the case of 篼 emissions tK, humans may not be able to achieve the expected threshold of "heating up to 2'C". By 2011, humans have accumulated 515 GtC02), and the future is left to humans. Extremely limited. Therefore, in the future, we will achieve the goal of ''heating up to 2XT', and we will work hard to reduce the greenhouse gas anthropogenic forcing -H aerosol 1s. H internal variability 1 good global average surface temperature change / 'C different factors for the 1951 (saturated) and intermediate (histogram) (introduced QAR5m technology) rate 95%).

Signals of human activity effects have also been detected in many aspects such as ocean warming, water cycle changes, cryospheric retreat, sea level rise, and extreme event changes. To this end, the IPCC is more convinced that human activities have played a leading role in climate warming in the past 100 years: use.

3 Estimating future climate change In the AR5, the CM1P5 model and the new emission scenario (typical concentration path, RCP >s are used to predict future climate system changes. The CMIP5 model couples the atmosphere, ocean, land curvature, sea ice, aerosol) Multiple modules such as carbon cycle, dynamic enthalpy and atmospheric chemistry are also coupled, called the Earth system model. RCP includes four scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Each scenario provides a range of emissions that are subject to socioeconomic conditions and climate impacts to the 2100 phase; the projected forcing values ​​are increased. With new models and scenarios, the accuracy of the estimates is improved. This is also the AR5. One of the predicted results of the embryonic point indicates that 'continuing the emission of greenhouse gases will further increase the global temperature. Compared with 1986-25, it is expected that the global average surface temperature will rise from 6 to 2035: 0.30.7.0 It will increase by 0.3 ~ 4.8 U from 2081 to 2100. The more the artificial Weng gas emissions, the greater the temperature increase.

The impact of global warming on climate system changes will continue in the future. 6 In the context of future warming, extreme warming will increase further, extreme cold events will decrease, heat waves will occur more frequently, longer, and latitude Most of the land areas and the humid heat period Qin Dahe, etc.: Highlights of the first report of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WGI Column Climate Change Research Progress 4 Conclusions and Discussion Compared with AR4 The AR5 confirms the fact that global warming has been nearly a hundred years from multiple layers and multiple perspectives. The evidence of human activities affecting the climate system is more and stronger. It provides new evidence for human factors causing climate warming in many aspects such as ocean warming, water cycle changes, cryospheric retreat, sea level funding, and extreme weather events. It is further confirmed that the impact of human activities is the main cause of climate warming since the mid-20th century (the rate is 95%). Estimates of future climate change using the CMIPS model and the RCP scenario suggest that an increase in warm fish gas concentrations will exacerbate warming, and AR5 clearly points to the urgency of global action to address climate change.

IPCCAR5WGI mobilized 859 scientists from around the world, citing 00 research results in climate system science, covering the process of evaluation of the forecourt in the field of global climate change: "China" was accepted by the national delegation. The report comprehensively and objectively assesses the progress and highlights of the natural sciences in climate change since 2007. It truly reflects the current understanding of the discipline in the scientific community. It provides a scientific basis for the international community to take action against climate change. At the same time, it has also developed the science of climate change, and popularized the knowledge of climate change to protect the environment, protect the earth's homeland, and protect human beings. The role and significance are extremely far-reaching.

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