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In the first half of this year, although China's petroleum and chemical industries maintained a good momentum of development in terms of production, sales, prices, import and export, and economic performance continued to improve, there are still many problems in economic operations, mainly in four aspects:
--- tight supply of oil products In the first half of the year, China's oil market showed a tight supply situation, especially in the southern region. In the first five months, China’s cumulative import of crude oil reached 61.548 million tons, an increase of 17.7% over the same period of the previous year. Although this situation has improved compared to the previous quarter, due to the strategic position of crude oil in the entire national economy, this situation also Should cause great concern. Since the beginning of this year, the country has raised oil prices twice in March and May respectively. Although adjustments have helped increase energy efficiency and curb some consumer demand, the overall tight supply situation has not changed significantly.
With the advancement of the construction of a new socialist countryside, China's rural production will have greater development, and agriculture will also become the new main energy consumption group. Potential rural consumer demand will gradually become a new growth point for oil consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider various influencing factors, formulate energy policies in line with China’s economic development, strive to increase oil inventory, rationally arrange transportation, strengthen market management, adjust export volume, establish a corresponding level of market early-warning mechanism, and strengthen national macroeconomic regulation and control. Power to solve the problem of oil supply in the second half of the year.
— The first five months before the decline in pesticide exports, the pesticide industry showed a favorable situation in which the off-season is not weak and production and sales are booming. However, the export situation is not optimistic. From January to May, the total amount of pesticides exported was 185,000 tons, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year; however, export value decreased by 21.8% year-on-year. The reason for this is that at the end of 2006, five kinds of highly toxic pesticides such as methamidophos will be prohibited from production, sales, and use. These products account for a high proportion of total pesticide exports; the second is trade barriers between Europe, the United States, and Australia. Serious; Third, the brand of export products is poor; Fourth, disorderly competition; Fifth, it is affected by the exchange rate. In terms of sub-categories, the export volume of pesticides and fungicides was 12,000 tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, down 18.7% and 23.9% year-on-year respectively; and the herbicide exports were 20,000 tons, an increase of 56.1% year-on-year.
--- High price of natural rubber Natural rubber is the main raw material and strategic material of China's rubber industry, but China's lack of natural rubber resources, the contradiction between supply and demand is increasingly prominent, and the price is high. According to the plan of the Ministry of Agriculture, by 2010 China's total output of natural rubber will be 750,000 tons. By that time, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic natural rubber will be less than 1/3. This will cause China's natural rubber to be highly dependent on imports and can only passively accept import prices. Since 2006, domestic natural rubber prices have continued to climb, and in June it has risen to its highest level so far this year. Natural rubber SCR5 and SCR10 have reached 25,250 yuan/ton and 24,250 yuan/ton respectively. Such “astronomical prices†are aggravated by the oversupply of production capacity, fierce market competition, and the frequent occurrence of anti-dumping rubber products in the export trade. Downstream users have called for the “high fever†of rubber prices to cool down, so the focus of the market is once again aligned. Import tariffs on natural rubber come up. Companies have called on the country to reduce natural rubber import tariffs, or to resume the provisional tax rate of 12% before joining the WTO.
———Overcapacity of some products Due to the improvement of the efficiency of the entire chemical industry in recent years, the whole industry has set off an upsurge of capacity expansion. In particular, there are many new projects in areas with rich energy and resources in the central and western regions. These areas want to “ During the 10th Five-Year Plan period, we accelerated economic development, and made use of local coal, mineral resources and other resources to plan and build large-scale coal chemical bases. The projects we built were similar. These projects will be successively put into production in the past two years, making a lot of products have the situation of excess capacity or there is such a trend, such as "two alkali", calcium carbide, pesticides, urea, paint, dyes and so on. At present, this trend continues to spread, there is a lack of unified coordination among various regions, blind construction of the development capacity of the market and the environment, or the phenomenon of disorderly planning in the same area. At the same time, many private investment entities lack rational and low-level redundant construction, which also exacerbates the issue of overcapacity. Therefore, advancing structural adjustment, strengthening pollution control, and developing a circular economy are currently the top priorities for the development of the entire industry.
In order to promote the adjustment of the industrial structure of the entire petroleum and chemical industry, the state should increase its support for the development of high value-added products such as new chemical materials and fine chemicals, as well as the development of new technologies and new processes. The scale is small and the technology is backward. Enterprises that do not meet environmental standards will be resolutely eliminated.
In addition, there are some issues that should also cause concern, such as serious losses in the refining industry, phosphorus phosphate fertilizer supply shortage of phosphorus phosphate fertilizer companies, excessive production of sulfuric acid, low prices and so on.
In the second half of this year, China’s oil and chemical products production will continue to grow at a relatively rapid rate. However, due to the fact that downstream demand cannot increase simultaneously, it is expected that the sales of products will decline compared with 2005; due to energy, raw materials, transportation, and other cost prices are As a result, the industry-wide cost will increase significantly compared with 2005, especially in the situation where supply exceeds demand, and the price support is weak. Therefore, the price trend of chemical products is not optimistic.
--- tight supply of oil products In the first half of the year, China's oil market showed a tight supply situation, especially in the southern region. In the first five months, China’s cumulative import of crude oil reached 61.548 million tons, an increase of 17.7% over the same period of the previous year. Although this situation has improved compared to the previous quarter, due to the strategic position of crude oil in the entire national economy, this situation also Should cause great concern. Since the beginning of this year, the country has raised oil prices twice in March and May respectively. Although adjustments have helped increase energy efficiency and curb some consumer demand, the overall tight supply situation has not changed significantly.
With the advancement of the construction of a new socialist countryside, China's rural production will have greater development, and agriculture will also become the new main energy consumption group. Potential rural consumer demand will gradually become a new growth point for oil consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider various influencing factors, formulate energy policies in line with China’s economic development, strive to increase oil inventory, rationally arrange transportation, strengthen market management, adjust export volume, establish a corresponding level of market early-warning mechanism, and strengthen national macroeconomic regulation and control. Power to solve the problem of oil supply in the second half of the year.
— The first five months before the decline in pesticide exports, the pesticide industry showed a favorable situation in which the off-season is not weak and production and sales are booming. However, the export situation is not optimistic. From January to May, the total amount of pesticides exported was 185,000 tons, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year; however, export value decreased by 21.8% year-on-year. The reason for this is that at the end of 2006, five kinds of highly toxic pesticides such as methamidophos will be prohibited from production, sales, and use. These products account for a high proportion of total pesticide exports; the second is trade barriers between Europe, the United States, and Australia. Serious; Third, the brand of export products is poor; Fourth, disorderly competition; Fifth, it is affected by the exchange rate. In terms of sub-categories, the export volume of pesticides and fungicides was 12,000 tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, down 18.7% and 23.9% year-on-year respectively; and the herbicide exports were 20,000 tons, an increase of 56.1% year-on-year.
--- High price of natural rubber Natural rubber is the main raw material and strategic material of China's rubber industry, but China's lack of natural rubber resources, the contradiction between supply and demand is increasingly prominent, and the price is high. According to the plan of the Ministry of Agriculture, by 2010 China's total output of natural rubber will be 750,000 tons. By that time, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic natural rubber will be less than 1/3. This will cause China's natural rubber to be highly dependent on imports and can only passively accept import prices. Since 2006, domestic natural rubber prices have continued to climb, and in June it has risen to its highest level so far this year. Natural rubber SCR5 and SCR10 have reached 25,250 yuan/ton and 24,250 yuan/ton respectively. Such “astronomical prices†are aggravated by the oversupply of production capacity, fierce market competition, and the frequent occurrence of anti-dumping rubber products in the export trade. Downstream users have called for the “high fever†of rubber prices to cool down, so the focus of the market is once again aligned. Import tariffs on natural rubber come up. Companies have called on the country to reduce natural rubber import tariffs, or to resume the provisional tax rate of 12% before joining the WTO.
———Overcapacity of some products Due to the improvement of the efficiency of the entire chemical industry in recent years, the whole industry has set off an upsurge of capacity expansion. In particular, there are many new projects in areas with rich energy and resources in the central and western regions. These areas want to “ During the 10th Five-Year Plan period, we accelerated economic development, and made use of local coal, mineral resources and other resources to plan and build large-scale coal chemical bases. The projects we built were similar. These projects will be successively put into production in the past two years, making a lot of products have the situation of excess capacity or there is such a trend, such as "two alkali", calcium carbide, pesticides, urea, paint, dyes and so on. At present, this trend continues to spread, there is a lack of unified coordination among various regions, blind construction of the development capacity of the market and the environment, or the phenomenon of disorderly planning in the same area. At the same time, many private investment entities lack rational and low-level redundant construction, which also exacerbates the issue of overcapacity. Therefore, advancing structural adjustment, strengthening pollution control, and developing a circular economy are currently the top priorities for the development of the entire industry.
In order to promote the adjustment of the industrial structure of the entire petroleum and chemical industry, the state should increase its support for the development of high value-added products such as new chemical materials and fine chemicals, as well as the development of new technologies and new processes. The scale is small and the technology is backward. Enterprises that do not meet environmental standards will be resolutely eliminated.
In addition, there are some issues that should also cause concern, such as serious losses in the refining industry, phosphorus phosphate fertilizer supply shortage of phosphorus phosphate fertilizer companies, excessive production of sulfuric acid, low prices and so on.
In the second half of this year, China’s oil and chemical products production will continue to grow at a relatively rapid rate. However, due to the fact that downstream demand cannot increase simultaneously, it is expected that the sales of products will decline compared with 2005; due to energy, raw materials, transportation, and other cost prices are As a result, the industry-wide cost will increase significantly compared with 2005, especially in the situation where supply exceeds demand, and the price support is weak. Therefore, the price trend of chemical products is not optimistic.
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