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The market is worried about the sustainability of the LED industry. Through comprehensive market research and analysis, it is believed that the LED industry has benefited from the lighting market, which is ushered in the best situation in history, and has entered a three-year long boom period; while mainland enterprises benefit from technology and cost. With the comprehensive advantages of supporting and supporting, we will enjoy the global LED manufacturing chain transfer premium.
The pattern of supply and demand has entered the best of history. 1) In 2014, the industry supply/demand ratio was only 1.04 (1.1 is the safe water level), which is close to the highest historical level of the industry in 2010; 2) The supply end is significantly shrinking. In 2013, the domestic MOCVD growth rate is far lower than the industry growth rate and downstream application demand. Speed ​​up. With the substantial derivation of subsidies, the future expansion will be more rational; 3) The demand side is rapidly increasing: The LED lighting market has entered the high-speed growth range of penetration rate 15. Taking leading enterprises as an example, the growth of new orders in 2014 will reach More than 2 times, the average growth rate of the industry can also be turned over; with the launch of the LED lighting cycle, it is expected that this round will continue for a long time.
Profitability is expected to increase: upstream is expected to increase structural prices, and downstream price declines will narrow. 1) Industry chain research shows that from the end of 2013 to the end of May 2014, the price of chips has dropped by less than 3, far better than the market expectation of 10, and it is expected that the future will have a structural price increase in the future; in the medium and long term, with the mainstream of the epitaxial film The size of the switch to 4 inches, chip size reduction and continuous improvement of light efficiency, chip profitability is expected to continue to optimize. 2) After the downstream application products actively cut the price and seek the market process, they have fallen to the price of energy-saving lamps, and the subsequent price reduction space is limited. According to the survey, 3W LED lamps have fallen by 33 to 2.9 dollars in the past year, only 1.5 times that of the same energy-saving lamps; while domestic cost-effective products are close to the price of energy-saving lamps; in the medium and long term, with the increase in intelligence and dimming ratio, applications End value added is expected to increase.
The short-term boom has been the best in history. The industry chain research shows: 1) The capacity utilization rate of the chip continues to be full. Due to the short-term failure to form enough new capacity, the supply of most varieties of chips will be tight in the second quarter. In order to seize the upstream resources, the downstream manufacturers have announced that they will sign with the chip factory. Lock the price for more than one year long list (history for the first time). 2) The visibility of LED lighting orders has exceeded the longest 3 months in history, and the orders have reached the level of August-October.
The transfer of industry has caused the mainland to enjoy a premium. The mainland's entire industrial chain has global competitiveness, benefiting from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and support, will carry the heavy responsibility of LED global manufacturing. According to the survey, after the application end becomes an international manufacturing center, domestic chips have occupied more than half of the domestic application, and the follow-up is also expected to obtain the largest share of overseas OEMs; LED manufacturing is expected to foster similar semiconductor foundry-oligopoly enterprises in the mainland. .
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