In the second half of the year, the prices of chemical products tend to stabilize.

In the first half of this year, prices of some major domestic chemical products continued to rise, and prices of some products reached the highest levels in recent years. Raw Material medicines are among them, and some of the products are also “ups and downs.” Coupled with the increasingly stringent national requirements for environmental protection, raw material medicine companies can obviously feel the pressure of high costs becoming tighter in the first half of the year. However, the forecast in the latest report completed by the National Price Monitoring Center is gratifying: the prices of chemical products will tend to stabilize in the second half of the year, and prices of some products may decline slightly.

The data show that the average price of polyethylene in the first half of the year was 11,740 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 3.16% compared with the same period of last year; the average price of polypropylene was 11,389 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 6.62% compared with the same period of last year; the average price of PVC was 70,020; RMB/ton, a decrease of 14.09% compared with the same period of last year; the average price of polyester chips was RMB 10,654/ton, which was 2.83% lower than the same period of last year; the average price of butadiene rubber was RMB 15,484/ton, which was higher than the same period of last year. 9.09%; the average price of the five major chemical products was 11,258 yuan/ton, which was 0.27% higher than the same period of last year.

The report believes that the factors affecting the price increase of chemical products in the first half of the year are demand growth, cost promotion, and rising prices in the international market. Among them, the sharp increase in the price of crude oil has increased the cost of chemical products, which has provided support for prices; and the rising prices of chemical products in the international market have also contributed to the rise in domestic prices.

With the slowdown of the global economic growth in the second half of the year, the high price of crude oil in the international market will fall, and the price of chemical products will tend to stabilize in the second half of the year. From the aspect of economic growth, the growth rate in the second half of the year may be slower than that in the first half of the year, which will have a certain impact on the price trend of chemical products. Judging from the global trend, in recent years, the world economy has continued to grow rapidly, driving primary product prices to rise sharply, and various risks have gradually accumulated. In order to prevent inflation, the United States has raised the benchmark interest rate to 5.25%, and the EU has also slightly increased the interest rate level. It can be foreseen that countries will still take precautions against possible inflation and financial risks, and the economic growth rate will slow down. In China, with the gradual emergence of various macro-control measures, the demand for various types of production materials and prices will tend to be stable, and the difficulty in the continued rise in prices of chemical products will increase.

From the second half of the oil price changes in the international market, according to the analysis of the trend of international oil prices in the second half of the year, in July and August, due to the arrival of the peak gasoline demand in summer and the increase of disastrous weather in summer, the price of crude oil may rise to a certain extent. . However, excessively high oil prices have clearly inhibited the growth of demand. For example, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year from 1.8 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 1.24 million barrels per day in its May report. Therefore, the price of oil Demand off-season will show a certain degree of decline. It is expected that prices of chemical products may still rise slightly in July and August, and decline slightly in the later period as the fall in oil prices in the off-season.

However, the report believes that, overall, the demand for chemical products is still showing a growth trend, so chemical product prices will remain high in the second half of the year. Therefore, raw material medicines can still not be able to get rid of the cost increase in the short term, which will have a certain degree of impact on China's raw material medicines that are won by price advantage.

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