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On the 11th, a magnitude 9 earthquake occurred in the sea near Honshu Island in Japan. The strong earthquake caused a tsunami and a nuclear power plant explosion. Shocking global disasters will not only cause huge losses in Japan, but will also affect the global economy. In the case of changes in the supply and demand of some raw materials, it may even affect the Chinese agricultural materials industry.
The major impact of the Great Earthquake in Japan on China's agricultural production industry is that on the one hand, the total amount of sulfur and sulfuric acid imported from Japan will decline, and on the other hand, the amount of yellow phosphorus exported to Japan will decline. More importantly, limited volatility can become the subject of business speculation.
Sulfur and sulfuric acid are the main raw materials for ammonium phosphate production. 1.4 tons of sulfuric acid or 0.5 tons of sulfur are consumed per ton of ammonium phosphate production. Japan is the world's third largest exporter of sulphuric acid, with a total sulphuric acid production of approximately 7.5 million tons per year. In 2010, China imported about 650,000 tons of sulfuric acid from Japan. Similarly, according to customs statistics, in 2010, China imported 1,144,800 tons of sulfur from Japan, accounting for 10.91% of the annual import volume. In January 2011, it imported 125,800 tons of sulfur from Japan, accounting for 13.37% of the total sulfur imports in January.
In response to the impact of the Great Japan Earthquake on the domestic industry, Zhao Lei, Consultant of the British Commodity Research Institute's Sulfur Consultation Company, said that the earthquake caused a large number of refineries in Japan to stop production and production. Currently, the loss assessment of the refinery has not yet been made. Japan's sulphur and sulfuric acid production capacity The exact amount of loss is not easy to say. However, the shutdown of refineries that accounted for 1/3 of the total capacity in Japan after the earthquake will have an impact on the sulfur and sulfuric acid markets. At the same time, he analyzed that Japan's refined oil is now extremely scarce, and the main reason for the suspension of production of refineries is the unstable power supply. Therefore, once the power supply is restored, Japan will resume the operation of the refinery as soon as possible. It is inferred that the suspension of production may be about two months, and the output should be more than 3/4 of the normal year's output. The sulfur sulfuric acid market supply in China will have an impact throughout the year, and the impact will not be too great throughout the year.
Wu Xiyan, chairman of the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, told reporters that the Japanese earthquake has a greater impact on China's phosphate fertilizer industry. China imports about 1.8 million tons of sulfuric acid each year, which is mainly used in coastal areas. The earthquake affected Japan's sulphur and sulphuric acid production capacity, but what is more important is that some people have found opportunities to speculate on sulphur prices. Before the earthquake, the spot price of sulfur had reached a high of US$220 per tonne. After the earthquake, prices rose further. On the 22nd, the Association had received a report from a Sichuan-based company that its sulfur-to-plant prices in the phosphate fertilizer production plant in Guizhou had risen to 2,100 yuan. In this way, the cost of producing one ton of monoammonium phosphate reached 2,800 yuan, which was seriously inversely related to the sales price in the market. .
The earthquake in Japan also had an impact on China's phosphorus chemical market. Japan is a large importer of yellow phosphorus in China. The data show that the number of shipments to Japan in 2010 accounted for 39% of China's total exports of yellow phosphorus. It is expected that it will take more than one year before the export to Japan returns to the earthquake. Prior to the domestic market price of yellow phosphorus rose, and the recent signs of stability at the top. Phosphorus is an important raw material for the production of pesticides, especially glyphosate. The production of one ton of glyphosate consumes about 0.3 tons of yellow phosphorus. The stability of yellow phosphorus prices will help reduce the cost of some pesticide products.
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