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- National Bureau of Statistics Forecast
Sinochem New Network News recently, some countries’ macro management departments predicted that the growth rate of the petrochemical industry will slow down in the second half of the year and the overall profitability of the industry will fall from its high point.
The forecast of the industry climate released by the National Bureau of Statistics and other departments shows that in the second half of the year, the cost pressure and resources and energy constraints are still severe, which will have a big impact on the economic operation of the petrochemical industry. Therefore, the chemical industry's production composite index may continue to decline, and sales revenue of products may continue to grow, but the year-on-year increase may decline. At the same time, due to the relatively small likelihood of a significant increase in price increases, the producer price index increase will narrow, and the total profit indicator may show a slight correction.
The Deputy Director of the Information and Marketing Department of the Petrochemical Federation wished P to agree with this judgment. He said that as the major downstream industries in the petrochemical industry, the automotive industry is currently entering a strategic adjustment period, and the growth rate of automobile production and sales this year is expected to be around 5%, which is a significant drop from the growth rate of more than 30% in the previous year. This will greatly affect the market demand for related chemical products.
Chen Guojun, an analyst at Xiangcai Securities Research Institute, believes that in the second half of the year, the chemical industry that originally had the foundation of overcapacity will have an unpredictable outlook. The industry is also facing high inflation, rising raw material prices, and declining demand. The overall profitability of the petrochemical industry for the past half year is not optimistic. In his view, due to rising costs and declining demand, the gross profit level of the underlying chemical industry as a mid-stream will lose balance. In particular, since the beginning of this year, the signs of a slowdown in the growth rate of the three major downstream applications of real estate, automobile, and textile and clothing have been evident, and the slowdown in the growth of these three industries will directly lead to a decline in demand for chemicals.
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