Refined oil prices may be lowered for the first time in the year of March 27

The rate of change in crude oil in the three places has fallen below the 4% red line recently. A number of analysts predict that according to the current price adjustment mechanism, domestic refined oil prices may be lowered for the first time in the year of March 27, 2013. Domestic gasoline and diesel are expected to return to the 7th era. The analysis agency predicts that the current international oil price is in a downtrend channel. At this time, it is a good time to launch a new refined oil pricing mechanism. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the new mechanism will be introduced simultaneously with the oil price adjustment.

The oil price or the first drop in the year

Analyst Chen Qing of Analyst Information Oil expressed that Cyprus’s taxation on bank deposits has made the market’s worries about the debt crisis in Europe deepened and international oil prices have continued to fluctuate. As of March 20, the movement rate of crude oil movements in the three places reached -4.37%. According to the current "Petroleum Prices Management Measures (Trial)", when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly.

The test shows that if the average price of crude oil in the three places remains at the current price of 105.56 USD/barrel, it is expected that by March 26, when 22 working days are met, the rate of change in the three places will drop to around -5.6%, and the window will be adjusted downwards. Will open. It is expected that the domestic oil price will come down for the first time in the first 27 days, and the downward adjustment will be around 300 yuan/ton. Treasure Island analyst Dong Lizhu is expected that the price adjustment of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by about 270-300 yuan / ton, equivalent to gasoline down 0.21 yuan / liter, diesel 0.25 yuan / liter.

On February 25th, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by RMB 300 and RMB 290 per ton respectively, and the maximum retail price of gasoline No. 90 and No. 0 diesel (average nationwide) will increase by RMB 0.22 and RMB 0.25 per liter respectively. For the first time this year, China has adjusted its refined oil prices. If the price of oil falls "down" this week, it will be the first time that domestic refined oil prices will be lowered in 2013. Domestic gasoline and diesel will return to the 7th era.

New mechanism or synchronization

Some analysts predict that the current international oil price is in a downtrend, and this is a good time to introduce a new refined oil pricing mechanism. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the new mechanism will be introduced simultaneously with the oil price reduction. Peng Sen, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, who was in charge of price work, said in an interview with reporters from the China Securities Journal during the two sessions that, overall speaking, the introduction of the new mechanism has caused little pressure on inflation. As long as international oil prices go down, new mechanisms can be introduced at any time.

In May 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Oil Price (Trial)" and remained in use. The "Measures" stipulate that the spot price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta will increase or decrease in the average price of 22 consecutive working days. When it exceeds 4%, it may be considered to adjust the maximum retail price of domestic refined oil. The main problem with the current pricing mechanism is that the “22 working days” period has a long valuation period, which leads to time lags in the price adjustment; the irrationality of “4%” and the reference value of the type of crude oil affiliated with it have declined. Therefore, shortening the pricing cycle, narrowing the 4% increase and fall, and changing the types of crude oil affiliated with it have become the consensus of the market on the pricing mechanism reform of refined oil products.

Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference during the two sessions that the National Development and Reform Commission is studying the reform plan of the oil price formation mechanism, and plans to shorten the price adjustment cycle and cancel the “4%” international oil price change rate standard, which will be adjusted according to a certain period. Peng Sen believes that the current mechanism is to choose the oil that has the greatest impact on China as the basis for pricing. WTI is mainly affected in the United States and has little impact on the Chinese market. Whether or not it will occupy the proportion of prices in the new mechanism depends on the final plan. However, the transparency of the new mechanism will increase. According to which kinds of international crude oil determine the domestic oil price, the new mechanism will be announced and the refined oil pricing formula will be announced. In order to prevent the international oil from soaring and plunging, the new mechanism will also have a certain "firewall."

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