Toyota leads the global car sales in the first three quarters

A few days ago, the top three global automobile sales rankings for the first three quarters of 2012 were announced. Toyota Motor Corporation won the championship with 7.4 million vehicles and continued its leading position in the first half of the year. General Motors and Volkswagen were all close to 7 million vehicles, according to statistics. The difference, second attribution or controversy and uncertainty. But Toyota's championship is certainly beyond doubt.

Three competitive

Among the three car companies, only the Volkswagen industry has released specific performance data for the first three quarters, but Toyota and GM spokespersons have initially given cumulative sales figures.

Toyota spokesman Yurika Motoyoshi announced that including Hino and Daihatsu's two subsidiaries, the Toyota Group's global sales in the third quarter of this year was 2.43 million units, compared with 2.06 million units in the same period of last year, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year; Millions, a year-on-year increase of 28%. With this data, the Toyota Group has been ranked among the cumulative sales rankings from January to September this year.

General Motors spokesman Jim Cain recently announced that the company sold 2.28 million vehicles in the third quarter, with cumulative sales of 6.95 million units in the first three quarters.

Volkswagen's sales data varies according to the difference in calculation methods.

If calculated according to the factory sales volume, the VW Group's global sales volume in the third quarter of this year was 2.333 million units, an increase of 12.9% from the 2.67 million units sold in the previous year; the cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters was 6.978 million units, which represents a year-on-year increase of 12.5 million on the basis of 620,000 units last year. %, which is higher than GM.

According to the delivery volume to consumers, the Group’s third quarter delivery volume was 230,000 units, which represented a year-on-year increase of 12.8% from the 2.042 million units sold in the previous year; and the cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters was 6.855 million units, which was based on the previous year’s 6.17 million units. Increased by 11.1% year-on-year.

Situation in China: Toyota is frustrated and the masses are fierce

In China, the world's largest market, the situation of three car companies varies. Toyota was frustrated by the Sino-Japanese Diaoyu Islands dispute that triggered the boycott of the Japanese car wave. This year's goal may be difficult to achieve; GM temporarily occupies a leading position; Volkswagen for the first time in the third quarter took the General Motors monopoly for eight years.

According to the first half and third quarter earnings of Volkswagen, in the first three quarters of this year, Volkswagen Group sold 2,004,719 units in China, compared with 1,691,100 units in the same period of last year, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year, and its market share increased from 19.0% last year to 20.9%. Volkswagen sold 1,299,800 vehicles in China during the first half of the year, an increase of 17.5% from 1,106,593 vehicles in the first half of last year, and its market share increased from 18.6% to 20.2%. Based on the above data, Volkswagen Group sold 704,919 vehicles in China in the third quarter of this year ("704,991 vehicles" by Bloomberg), compared with 584,507 vehicles in the same period of last year, an increase of 20.6% year-on-year ("21%" by Bloomberg).

According to GM’s monthly sales report: GM’s sales in China continued to increase in the third quarter of this year. July increased by 15.1% year-on-year to 199,503 units, up 7.3% year-on-year to 220,996 units in August and 1.7% year-on-year to 244,266 units in September. The reason for the weaker growth in September was that SAIC-GM-Wuling's sales fell by 2.5% year-on-year, exceeding the decline in the overall Chinese auto market in September.

Based on the above three-month data, GM's sales in China in the third quarter were 664,765 units, compared to 619,474 units in the same period of last year, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year.

Therefore, in terms of sales volume in China in the third quarter of 2012, Volkswagen surpassed General Motors and won the top spot among overseas car companies, ending GM’s monopoly on the number one automaker Guiguan in eight years.

However, from the cumulative sales in the previous three quarters, cumulative sales of General Motors and its joint ventures in China totaled 2,081,812 units, an increase of 10.0% year-on-year. The data still leads 77,093 Volkswagen cars and holds the top spot for GM’s largest overseas car company in China.

In September, the conflict between the two countries on the Diaoyu Islands issue was intensified. China's domestic outbreak of anti-Japan demonstrations, boycott and destruction of Japanese goods, Toyota sales fell sharply. According to different statistical methods, there are slight differences between the two types of Toyota's data in China.

According to data disclosed by senior executives to the media, Toyota’s sales in China in September this year were approximately 50,000 vehicles, which is a decrease of approximately 40% year-on-year compared with 86,000 vehicles in September last year. The second is the data released by the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun". Toyota sold 44,100 vehicles in China in September, a sharp drop of 48.9% year-on-year. In the third quarter, it sold 197,700 vehicles in China, a year-on-year drop of 23%.

Unfavorable factors

According to analysts' estimates, the total sales of Toyota, GM and Volkswagen this year will exceed 9 million vehicles, reaching or exceeding the level of 902,000 cars of last year's champion GM, and Toyota will even approach tens of millions of vehicles. However, the uncertainty of the global auto market structure has caused all three car companies to face the negative factors, there is the risk of reducing production and reducing sales targets. The wrestle of various factors will determine the order of this year and even later.

First of all, Toyota's frustration in the world’s top car market in China casts a shadow over its championship. China is Toyota's second largest market, second only to North America. Toyota sold 895,000 vehicles in China last year and 883,000 vehicles in mainland China. The target for this year is 1 million, which accounts for more than 10% of its global sales. After the Diaoyu Islands storm, analysts and Toyota executives considered it difficult to complete the target.

"Mid-Japan Economist" reported on October 18th that the Toyota Group's global production target for 2012 was 10.05 million vehicles. However, due to the decline in sales in China, Toyota is considering reducing its target value by 2%. This means Toyota will cut production by about 200,000 vehicles. Although Toyota dismissed the idea of ​​production cuts, the 9.76 million vehicles target this year will be affected by negative forces from China to a certain extent.

Second, Europe is losing momentum. Due to the downturn in the European auto market and other factors, Volkswagen has reduced its production target this year from the planned 9.7 million to 300,000 to 9.4 million, and set to close the production plant in Passen, Emden, Germany, in order to adapt the output to market demand. It is reported that Volkswagen’s production and sales target in the European region this year will be reduced by 140,000 vehicles.

The above production and sales figures include Porsche, which was newly acquired by Volkswagen, and the commercial vehicle brands Mann and Scania.

Third, Opel/Vauxhall, the European business of General Motors, faces a severe test. Morgan Stanley analysts said in September that Opel had incurred a loss of 16 billion U.S. dollars for General Motors in the past 12 years. Between now and 2021, Opel will continue to make an average of 1 billion U.S. dollars in losses every year. GM is planning Opel to close factories and reduce production. Measures to reduce the number of workers' working hours will directly affect the production and sales volume this year.