China's passenger car has zero growth!

The status of car sales in November can be summed up in two words - weak. The total amount of SUVs continues to narrow, and the decline in cars has further widened, and heavy trucks have suddenly dropped. In the face of all this, only new energy vehicles are making rapid progress, and the growth rate has further expanded.

In the second quarter, the author once predicted that China's auto growth rate may be negative this year. However, later information showed that this estimate was too pessimistic.

When it was originally expected, more consideration was given to passenger cars. It now appears that the growth of passenger vehicles will be within 2%, and the total automobile sales in 2017 may stop at 29 million vehicles. We know that in the past two months, the sales of automobiles have been basically driven by new energy vehicles and commercial vehicles, and the growth of cars has been weak. In November, sales were sluggish, sales of passenger cars rose 0% year-on-year, and sales of cars increased by -4.8% year-on-year. Even the SUVs who had been sitting on the rockets sold only 8.9% of the year-on-year sales, falling into single digits for the first time. Interval.

Another reality is that the growth rate of commercial vehicles has also dropped. This is of course related to the sudden increase at the end of last year. However, we see that the cumulative growth rate of semitrailer tractors in the first eleven months of this year was 63.9% year-on-year, compared with a -35.5% year-on-year increase in November. Yes, you read it right, the growth rate was -15.4%.

Ice fire two days. The total amount of new energy vehicles is still expanding. In November, it sold 119,000 units. In the first 11 months, it sold a total of 609,000 vehicles, and this year it can break through the 700,000 mark. No matter whether it is a new energy passenger vehicle or a new energy commercial vehicle, it is on a large scale. Both the year-on-year and the ring-by-quarter ratios show strong growth.

From this figure, we can see that since the second quarter of 2017, China's car sales have entered a range of ultra-low fluctuations. If we look back at the situation in the past decade, this situation is very rare - the overall volatility of car sales is declining. It means that the market gradually entered a mature saturation period.

The commercial vehicle hedged the fluctuation of the passenger car. Since March of this year, passenger cars have also experienced unprecedented low-wave dynamics. This fluctuation is even lower than the range of decline in the first half of 2015.

This picture shows the cumulative situation, with little change every month. However, in comparison, the trend of gradual slowdown in SUV growth is clearly clear, and the car has failed to re-enter the “runway”.

In the commercial vehicle market, it is indeed admitting that the amount of heavy oil in November 2016 is sufficient, but it must also be admitted that this November is a particularly noticeable increase in the growth rate. Does this mean that the current cycle of commercial vehicles is coming to an end?

The focus of this figure is that the sales of heavy goods vehicles have dropped year-on-year! Crazy growth has begun to call off the curtain, and in a very short period of time to step into the falling range. It can be said that the cyclical nature of this market is obvious.

Another bright spot is that light trucks have increased by 24.3%, and light trucks have been growing at a moderate rate, which is now expanding. Where does this demand come from?

In terms of new energy vehicles, the year-on-year increase compared with the increase in 2016 is even greater than last year. The proportion of such a figure is not changed. Look at whether the red bar chart of December can break through the table.

After a few months of weakness, the branded Chinese passenger car began to moderately increase again in November, with 1.182600 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the market share increased by 2.2 percentage points.

What's interesting about this picture is that during the three consecutive years, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has shown a high degree of similar cyclical trend. Does anyone know why this is?

The so-called undercurrents, the ranking of the top 15 Chinese companies is more obvious, almost half rose, half fell, after all, the growth of the entire market share is very small. Therefore, "growth" is mostly caused by "eating away."

The status of car sales in November can be summed up in two words - weak. The total amount of SUVs has continued to narrow, and the decline in cars has further widened, while heavy trucks have suddenly fallen. In the face of all this, only new energy vehicles are making rapid progress, and the growth rate is further expanding. It is estimated that in 2017 China's total automobile sales will be near 29 million vehicles.

The Chinese auto market in 2018, if it can maintain the 2017 trend, is even better.