LED lighting demand development exceeded expectations


After the collapse of LED companies in 2012, the LED market began to pick up in the second half of 2013. The recent regulatory approval for LED companies to refinance is the signal of recovery.
On December 14, Aoyang Shunchang announced that the company's non-public offering of A shares was approved. This means that it intends to enter the countdown by refinancing 512 million yuan for the construction of LED epitaxial wafers and chip industrialization projects (Phase I).
2012 was the toughest year for the LED epitaxial chip industry, with a severe overcapacity and falling prices. The cruel market situation has led to the withdrawal or shelving of some chip projects.
However, in the view of Chen Hao, general manager of Aoyang Shunchang, the winter of LED is about to pass, and it has gradually warmed up in the first half of 2013, and the second half is more obvious. The price of LED products has gradually declined, accelerating its replacement of traditional lamps. The future development of LED lighting needs will be far better than before.
The 10 mass productions can be scheduled according to the fixed increase plan disclosed by Aoyang Shunchang in June this year. It is planned to increase the price by no less than 100 million shares at a price of not less than 5.12 yuan per share, and the fundraising will not exceed 512 million yuan. After deducting the issuance expenses, 400 million yuan will be used for LED epitaxial wafer and chip industrialization projects (Phase I), and 100 million yuan will be used to supplement working capital.
The total investment of the above LED projects is 808 million yuan, and the project construction period is 30 months. After the project is completed and put into production, 1.8 million pieces of blue-green LED epitaxial wafers will be formed (calculated by 2-inch epitaxial wafers), blue-green chips. With a production capacity of 11.5 billion tablets, it is estimated that the annual sales income will reach 720 million yuan and the annual after-tax profit will be 169 million yuan.
Cui Shutian, a researcher at Guotai Junan Securities, believes that if the issuance success, 30 MOCVD equipments of Aoyang Shunchang will be fully produced in early 2015. It is estimated that the after-tax profit will be about 100 million yuan, which is about 1 times of the existing profit.
From December 3rd to 4th, 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned in the Huai'an survey in Jiangsu that the Aoyang Shunchang LED project has mass production of 5 MOCVD equipment, and the company has reordered 5 69-piece machines. Arrived at the end of December this year. If there is no accident, 10 MOCVD equipment will be mass-produced in the first quarter of next year.
The third quarterly report showed that the company's third quarter operating income was 374 million yuan, of which LED business income was 10.842 million yuan.
Galaxy Securities researcher Zhou Wei previously expected that Aoyang Shunchang will turn its LED business into a profit in the fourth quarter of this year, and the business has achieved a single quarter profit in the third quarter. According to the information provided by the management, the reasons for the earlier profitability of the project are as follows: First, the mass production of the existing 5 MOCVD equipments is progressing smoothly, and the sales of chip products are good. Second, the product technology upgrade progress is relatively fast, and some medium-brightness chips with higher gross profit margins have been sold.
Downstream orders indicate that our equipment is 69-piece machines, and downstream customers are mainly manufacturers of lamps in Guangdong. Since April this year, we feel that there are more and more orders from the downstream of LED. Chen Yu said.
The data shows that in the third quarter of this year, the revenue of LED stocks of A-share listed companies was 5288.93 million yuan, up 6.08 points month-on-month and 20.62 million yuan year-on-year; net profit was 617.52 million yuan, a slight decrease of -2.25 points from the previous month and a significant increase of 38.36 points year-on-year; The return on net assets was 2.00, a slight decrease of 6 from the previous month, but it rose sharply by 27.
Liu Xiang, an analyst at Guosen Securities, believes that LED companies have a considerable growth in revenue, net profit and ROE in the off-season, indicating that the general lighting market, which is driving the industry to pick up, is gradually opening up in the current situation where the backlight market is gradually stabilizing.
Huifa Lun, a researcher at GF Securities, believes that the LED industry will be turning to a turning point in 2014. The general lighting market will surpass the backlight market and become the mainstream of the LED industry. The reason is that the foundation is stable, the LED lighting products have outstanding characteristics, and the light source is traditional. The lighting is more than 10 times; the second is that the policy is favorable for continuous fermentation. It is expected that the global incandescent lamp will be banned in 2017; the third is that the market price is attractive, and the LED purchase cost recovery period is shortened from 10 years to 2.3 years.
There are always prophets in the secondary market. Aoyang Shunchang has risen nearly 10.12 on the 16th of December, up 6.27 to close at 7.12 yuan, and hit an 18-month high of 7.36 yuan.

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