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The LED industry is emerging from overcapacity and will restart equipment investment and expand capacity in 2014. According to the quarterly forecast report of the International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Organization (SEMI), investment in LED wafer manufacturing equipment will rise by 17 to $1.2 billion next year after a continuous decline. Equipment investment will also present a new trend: the main force of equipment investment in the LED industry will be industry leaders and survivors, not new players.
The benefits of LED TV, the optimistic attitude towards the long-term growth of solid-state lighting, and the rapid expansion of LED production capacity in the world in the past three years have led to a surge in interest in LEDs worldwide. LED's world production capacity increased by 49 in 2011, and increased by 39 in 2012. In 2013, it continued to rise. 19. China's LED manufacturing growth is also more prominent, from the monthly capacity of 1 million wafers in 2010 to 2013. 6.2 million wafers per year.
In 2010 and 2011, most of the capacity expansion was due to manufacturers' over-optimistic forecasts for the future. The LED market will grow to $20 billion by 2015. Currently, the forecast for the LED packaging market is: after 2015, around $15 billion, the compound annual growth rate is lower than 5. The main reason for the downward revision is that LEDs are becoming more efficient in use (such as improving the light in the display). Conduit), LED package is more efficient, and the transition to the LED lighting market is slower. According to US market research firm StrategiesUnlimited, the average cost per kilogram of lumens has fallen from $13 in 2011 to less than $3.65 today. The number of LEDs used in television has dropped by a third, and many SSL fixtures use nearly half less LEDs than in previous years. The number of LEDs used in mobile devices and laptops has also declined. The car is still a growing market, but the car's share of the entire LED market is only 10.
With so many new capacity and new businesses, as well as falling growth rates, the price of LED packages has fallen sharply in recent years, causing serious financial difficulties for many companies, especially newly established companies. The capacity utilization rate of the plant has declined globally, especially in China. Sales of MOCVD systems, the key production equipment for LED epitaxial wafers, plummeted. Leading MOCVD companies, such as Veeco and Aixtron, have tripled their sales in 2010, but in 2012 their revenues plummeted by nearly the same amount.
The ability to compensate for the decline in the price of LED packages is a decline in the price of sapphire wafers used by more than 80 LED companies. The price of a 4-inch sapphire wafer is currently about $32. In 2011, the price was as high as $130. The price of a 6-inch sapphire wafer is currently less than $300, and it is still around $450 18 months ago. The patterned substrate is the standard for 2-inch and 4-inch wafers and is expected to be 6-inch. The decline in sapphire prices and the continued competitiveness of silicon carbide (SiC) have inhibited the penetration of the GaN-on-silicon technology (GaNonSilicon) into the LED industry, although this trend was once thought to be inevitable. Research firm LuxResearch recently published a report titled "Darkening Hype: Silicon on GaN Cannot Surpass Sapphire by 2020", benefiting from expanded capacity and continuous technological advances, silicon carbide and Sapphire will continue to occupy the LED market. The report also said that new processes such as hydride vapor phase epitaxy will further improve production capacity and reduce costs, so that sapphire wafers will remain highly competitive in the next 10 years.
At present, the global LED industry seems to be becoming more stable. Leading manufacturers are investing in 6-inch wafer production systems and purchasing equipment to increase production. Recent investments in LED manufacturing have focused on migration to 6-inch wafers, with major companies being Cree (silicon carbide), Philips and OSRAM (sapphire). Nichia continues to invest in capacity expansion and technology improvement. In addition, Epistar, FormosaEpitaxy and GenesisPhotonics have made significant investments in manufacturing facilities this year. Almost all leading manufacturers are modernizing their production systems by investing in measurement technology, automation, etching and lithography.
In 2014, Chinese companies will continue to purchase MOCVD equipment. The International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Group estimates that sales of MOCVD reactors will increase by 50 in 2014. In addition, many LED factories in China will be shut down or rebuilt for other uses due to market consolidation and the collapse of many uncompetitive companies. Sanan Optoelectronics with 120 MOCVD equipment and ETround (ETi) with 90 reactors are working hard to increase capacity utilization and may emerge as important market players. Some medium-sized LED factories in China, such as the production capacity of Shengyang Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics, have almost been fully utilized, and they are optimistic about the future. In 2014, equipment spending by Chinese companies will account for 44% of global bonuses, up from 33 in 2013.
As the overall LED market will show modest growth over the next five years, and many manufacturers are vertically integrated with lighting manufacturers, incentives for manufacturing equipment investments will give companies a cost advantage. In addition, many mid-power LED packages are being migrated to lighting applications (previously reserved for advanced high-power products), which will create new market opportunities for Chinese companies. However, after many years of rapid technological changes, many lighting manufacturers are working hard to reduce the number of parts (chip size, type of luminescent material, etc.), stabilize their product lines, limit the needs of new suppliers and product types.
In short, after experiencing rapid expansion of production capacity in 2010-2012, the global LED manufacturing market will stabilize. The sharp drop in the price of LED packages has been largely offset by lower wafer costs, higher yields, and larger wafer sizes. Global industry leaders such as Nichia, Cree, Philips, Osram and LGInnotek will continue to modernize their production processes. Chinese companies are beginning to accumulate strength to cope with long-term competition.
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